UKRAINE’S KURSK OFFENSIVE ROILS RUSSIA’S AFRICAN PRESENCE
Ukraine’s daring military incursion into Russian territory is having a pronounced effect on the Kremlin’s foreign presence. In response to the Ukrainian offensive, members of the “Bear Brigade,” a private military group currently stationed in Burkina Faso, are repositioning back to Russia to reinforce the country’s military. Of the Brigade’s estimated 300 soldiers, around 100 will return to bolster Moscow's defense against Kyiv. The unit had arrived in Burkina Faso only a few months ago in an attempt to assist the West African state in addressing surging jihadist violence.
The decision has concrete ramifications for the country’s ruling junta, which now faces uncertainty over adjusting to the reduced military presence. With the absence of French forces and the withdrawal of Russian military assistance, this development could create an opportunity for new strategic partnerships in the region, potentially impacting security dynamics. (BBC, August 30, 2024)
UN ACCUSES SAF AND RSF OF WAR CRIMES, CALLS FOR PEACEKEEPERS
A UN body issued a report in which it accused the Sudanese Armed Forces and their allied Rapid Support Forces of serious human rights violations and international crimes, amounting to war crimes. It detailed attacks on civilians, including rapes and sexual violence, torture, and airstrikes against essential civilian infrastructure like hospitals and schools. The UN has responded by calling for the deployment of peacekeepers to protect civilians and recommending an extension of the limited arms embargo, so far applied only to Darfur, to the whole region in light of sustained ethnic violence.
As of September 8th, the SAF had rejected both proposals. The conflict remains unresolved, with significant challenges in addressing the humanitarian crisis and achieving peace. (AllAfrica, September 6, 2024; Bloomberg, September 8, 2024)
MPOX CASES SOAR IN AFRICA
Cases of Mpox, an infectious viral disease, are surging across Africa, with over 1,000 new infections reported in one week. The total number of confirmed cases on the continent has now exceeded 18,000, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accounting for 94% of new infections. Health officials across Africa are urgently calling for more vaccines. Without sufficient supplies, many have turned to smallpox vaccines as a temporary measure to control the outbreak. The World Health Organization's declaration of a global health emergency has heightened fears of further spread within Africa, and beyond.
Western nations are mobilizing to help. Nigeria was the first African country to receive a shipment of 10,000 vaccines from the U.S., having initiated the procurement process before the global health emergency was declared. That, however, promises to be just the beginning. The Africa CDC estimates that over 10 million doses are needed across the continent to combat the epidemic effectively. (Newsweek, August 21, 2024; Reuters, September 4, 2024)
GERD DAM A FLASHPOINT BETWEEN ETHIOPIA AND EGYPT
Ethiopia has called on Egypt to reconsider its opposition to the long-planned Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam following Egypt's recent complaint regarding the project to the UN Security Council. Egypt had complained that Ethiopia, by filling the dam without a downstream agreement, was in breach of international law – complaints that Addis Ababa has termed unfounded. According to Ethiopia, Cairo’s concerns are driven by its interest in preserving the current status quo over the Nile, under which it has extensive power over water access for downstream riparians. That, however, runs counter to Ethiopia’s development strategy, of which the GERD is a central part. And as construction on the GERD progresses, Egyptian anxieties have surged.
Complicating the picture is the blossoming military relationship between Egypt and Ethiopia’s eastern neighbor, Somalia. The two countries recently inked a military pact in the wake of a January agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which Somalia regards as part of its own territory. Repeated diplomatic efforts to resolve the dam dispute have failed, with both sides accusing each other of blocking progress.(BBC, September 9, 2024)
A FRAUGHT ELECTION IN ALGIERS
Amid accusations of voting fraud by opposition parties, Algerian authorities have declared President Abdulmadjid Tebboune the winner in the country’s recent elections. Tebboune reportedly secured 95% of the vote, with rival candidates Abdelaali Hassani Cherif and Youcef Aouchiche receiving 3% and 2% respectively. Both opponents have raised concerns about voting irregularities, alleging that polling station results were manipulated and official records were not adequately shared. With less than half of registered voters casting ballots, critics have labeled the process a "farce." Tebboune's campaign has yet to respond to the claims publicly. (Reuters, September 8, 2024)
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