Global Islamism Monitor No. 117

BANGLADESH FREES TERROR LEADER...
In a move that has raised worries in neighboring India, the Bangladeshi government has freed Jashimuddin Rahmani, the leader of Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), an al-Qaeda affiliate. Rahmani had been sentenced to five years in prison for murdering a local blogger, but was released on parole through a decision of Bangladesh's caretaker government, which is headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. In the past, Rahmani had sought to expand his group's jihadist network into India's northeast, and is known to have partnered with Pakistan's Lashkar e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist group for that purpose. (India Today, August 27, 2024)

...AS WORRIES SWIRL OVER DHAKA'S DIRECTION
India's worries are about more than just one militant. The Bangladeshi government's pardoning of Rahmani has heightened fears in New Delhi of a deepening anti-Indian direction in the country following the recent ouster of its longtime leader, Sheikh Hasina. Observers, however, have argued that those fears are overblown. Writing in the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune, Salil Tripathi asserts that India's predictions of an Islamist takeover of Bangladesh are "alarmist," and geared toward stoking domestic sentiment. "Bangladesh is a country of Muslims who speak Bengali, not of Islamic fundamentalists... Failure to make that distinction has been a strategic miscalculation of many Indians, but it plays well domestically," he notes. In that way, India's assessment of Bangladesh represents a bellwether of sorts, and the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi "will ultimately have to decide if it is running its foreign policy for better ties abroad or to please its domestic base." (India Today, August 27, 2024; Jerusalem Strategic Tribune, September 2024)

GERMANY EXPELS IRANIAN RELIGIOUS LEADER
Germany has expelled Mohammad Hadi Mofatteh, the leader of the Islamic Center Hamburg (IZH). The IZH, which was recently banned by local authorities in the German state of Hamburg, has been linked to the Iranian regime, and Mofatteh himself has been characterized as an "official deputy" of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Mofatteh was given two weeks to exit the country, while the IZH and its subsidiary organizations have been shuttered for "pursuing radical Islamist goals." Mofatteh had "sought to bring about an Islamic revolution in Germany," Reuters reports. (Reuters, August 29, 2024)

A HAMAS REBOUND IN NORTHERN GAZA?
Publicly, Israeli officials say that their country's ongoing military offensive in the Gaza Strip is progressing, and that the Hamas terrorist group is on the verge of a decisive strategic defeat. But the picture appears to be more nuanced – and volatile – than government officials in Jerusalem are portraying. According to a report by Israel's Channel 12, Hamas has enlisted over 3,000 new operatives to help it regain operational capability in the northern Gaza Strip. These new recruits have reportedly been supplied with weapons, ammunition, and payments for carrying out further attacks. The report notes that Hamas operatives can operate more freely due to the lack of large Israeli troop numbers in the area – given that the focus of the fighting has shifted further south, to the central and southern Gaza Strip in recent weeks. (Jerusalem Post, September 3, 2024)

JORDAN'S NEW POLITICAL BALANCE
The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas continues to reverberate in neighboring Jordan, where there is mounting domestic discontent over the conflict and the Hashemite Kingdom's stance toward it. In an early bid to insulate his government from criticism, King Abdullah II revamped certain electoral laws back in 2022, allotting a larger role for political parties within the 138-seat parliament. The impact became evident this month, when the country's version of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), won up to 20 percent of seats in the national legislature. While tribal and pro-government factions still dominate the assembly, and the voting system continues to favor provincial regions over densely populated cities, the development is nonetheless significant – showcasing the growing strength of Islamist forces in the country. (Times of Israel, September 11, 2024)

PREPARING FOR A NORTHERN FRONT
Even as it continues military operations against Hamas, Israel is increasingly looking north – to the growing likelihood of a conflict with Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah militia. The Israeli military has announced the establishment of a new rapid reaction unit based in the Golan Heights. The new patrol company, the IDF has said, will be attached to the famed Golani Brigade and "designed to provide an immediate response to various threats in the region." (Al Hurra, September 12, 2024)