BRITAIN’S CHAGOS GAMBLE SPARKS FEARS OF CHINESE INFLUENCE
Though Britain received a 99-year lease on the U.S.-U.K. airbase at Diego Garcia, London has ceded sovereignty of all Chagos Islands to the east African island nation of Mauritius. The move comes as part of a broader effort to adhere to international legal norms and facilitate the return of the displaced Chagossians to Mauritius. Diego Garcia remains a key asset for both the UK and the U.S., serving as a joint military airbase with critical strategic value in the Indian Ocean. Over the years, it has been instrumental as a launch point for long-range bombers and other military operations, underscoring its enduring relevance to Western defense objectives. However, the deal is not without controversy. Many view the agreement as a significant victory for Mauritius – and, by association, China. China and Mauritius are close allies, and critics fear that the ceded territory could enable China to gain a "military foothold" in the Indian Ocean. (Reuters, Oct 3, 2024)
TENSIONS RISE IN THE HORN
Tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia are escalating as Ethiopia contemplates a historic deal with Somaliland. The agreement would grant Ethiopia access to naval and commercial port facilities on the Red Sea in exchange for Somaliland receiving its first official recognition as an independent state. However, Somalia, committed to maintaining its territorial integrity—including Somaliland—has responded with threats to expel Ethiopian troops aiding in the fight against the al-Shabaab terror group. Meanwhile Egypt, which backs Somalia with military support, is using the conflict to express its grievances over Ethiopia's Blue Nile dam, adding another layer of complexity to the situation.
The United States is increasingly concerned that all this geopolitical friction will distract Somalia from its counterterrorism efforts, creating an opening for al-Shabaab to regain influence. The militant group is exploiting the nationalistic tensions to recruit Somali youth, and its reported connections with Yemen’s Houthi militants could further destabilize the region. The Biden administration is carefully balancing support for Somalia's unity while exploring alternatives for Ethiopia, aiming to defuse the situation before it undermines broader regional security and U.S. interests. (Wall Street Journal, Oct 13, 2024)
WAR TOILS ON IN SUDAN…
Sudan's military recently launched a major operation in Khartoum, aiming to retake territory lost during the civil war that began 17 months ago between the Sudanese army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of General Mohamed Hamdan. The war has caused a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and over half of Sudan’s 50 million person population facing hunger. The offensive coincided with General al-Burhan's speech at the UN, where he blamed the RSF and their international backers for the devastation in Sudan. While he didn't name specific countries, the United Arab Emirates has been accused of supporting the RSF, though the Gulf state denies the association. (New York Times, September 26, 2024)
…AS WASHINGTON SANCTIONS RSF LEADER
The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on a key leader within Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for his involvement in procuring weapons that have sustained the paramilitary group amid the ongoing conflict. Algoney Hamdan Daglo Musa is at the center of these sanctions, identified by the U.S. State Department as having facilitated the RSF's access to military supplies. According to State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, Daglo’s actions have not only exacerbated the violence in Sudan but have also contributed to the RSF's alleged atrocities against civilians, which include war crimes and ethnic cleansing. (VOA, Oct 8, 2024)
NIGERIANS PROTEST “ANTI-POOR” WORLD BANK RECOMMENDATIONS
Protests have erupted across several Nigerian cities, fueled by widespread discontent over escalating hunger and economic hardship. Demonstrators are calling on the government pf President Bola Tinubu to abandon the fiscal measures recommended by the World Bank, which they deem to be "anti-poor." Their demands extend to lower electricity costs and the release of protesters arrested during similar demonstrations in August. On the anniversary of Nigeria's independence from Britain, protesters descended on Abuja, where police deployed tear gas to disperse the crowd. Meanwhile, groups continued to gather in Lagos, but many were deterred from protesting in Ilorin, a nearby city, where a heavy police and paramilitary presence guarded the city center to monitor the demonstrations, reflecting the government's efforts to stifle dissent. (Al-Jazeera, October 1, 2024)
SOUTH SUDAN’S PRESIDENTIAL POWER PLAY
Just weeks after yet another election delay in South Sudan, President Salva Kiir announced the dismissal of long-serving Intelligence Chief Akol Koor Kuc. Since the nation's separation from Sudan in 2011, Kuc has served as the head of the controversial National Security Service's (NSS) internal security bureau, a position that has granted him significant power within the government. The decision to remove Kuc is seen as a strategic move by Kiir, given that the NSS holds a disproportionate amount of influence over the country’s political landscape. His replacement, Akec Tong Aleu, is not only a close ally of Kiir but also a well-known supporter of his party, further solidifying Kiir's control. (Reuters, October 3, 2024)
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