Russia Policy Monitor No. 2651

Related Categories: Intelligence and Counterintelligence; Military Innovation; Public Diplomacy and Information Operations; Science and Technology; Warfare; Resource Security; Russia; Ukraine

A NEW RUSSIAN MEANS OF SUBVERSION
The Kremlin is stepping up its efforts to subvert Ukraine - and harnessing the country's youth in order to do so. Russia's foreign intelligence service, the FSB, is said to be recruiting Ukrainian youth to burn Ukrainian military vehicles and other government property for money. A new expose by Radio Free Europe outlines the means by which the FSB is securing the compliance of Ukrainian youth - through contacts, usually by phone, that promise large sums of money. One Ukrainian teenager told the broadcaster that he received $900 the first time he committed arson, and $970 after the second.

Ukrainian authorities have now arrested over 100 arsonists suspected of having been working with the Russian FSB. For its part, Russia has tried to cover up its involvement in these attacks, making them seem like ordinary Ukrainian civilians acting independently. But RFE's investigation has outlined the Kremlin's orchestration of them as a way of sowing subversion in Ukrainian society and undermining the country's cohesion and battlefield effectiveness. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, October 16, 2024)

A GRIM DEFICIT
As Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine approaches its third anniversary, the local effects of the conflict are becoming harder for the Kremlin to mask. As Paul Goble reports in his Window on Eurasia blog, sympathetic Russian lawmakers are now raising the alarm over what they characterize as a "severe shortage" of space in cemeteries and crematoria. "Because of the impact of the pandemic and more recently fighting in Ukraine, the number of deaths that Russian crematoria and cemeteries must hand has jumped by four percent during the first half of 2024 as compared to the same period a year earlier, to 921,100," Goble notes, citing United Russia Duma deputy Svetlana Razvorotnyeva. "Rozvorotnyeva and other Duma deputies say that the only solution is to update the 1996 law governing funerary services and the expansion of investment in this sector so that Russians can be laid to rest with dignity," he outlines. (Window on Eurasia, October 12, 2024)

RUSSIA'S NEW, "PATRIOTIC" TEXTBOOKS
Russia's military campaign against Ukraine has been accompanied by a massive propaganda push designed to - among many other things - demonize Ukraine's national leadership as "Nazis," style the "special military operation" against Kyiv as a response to relentless NATO encroachment, and unify domestic opinion in support of the Kremlin. On that last front, Russian authorities are now trying a new tack. Meduza reports that the Russian secondary school system, which has already been saturated with pro-Kremlin narratives, is now moving to reshape English-language education as well. Namely, "[f]our schools in the Tver region are set to begin using new English textbooks whose content is designed to promote Russia's 'traditional spiritual and moral values.'"

And while currently "limited in scope," the effort could soon become considerably bigger. As Natalia Moskvitina, president of the Women for Life Foundation and a top activist for "patriotic" reform of English education, recently told the opposition news outlet, "Tver is the first region. Right now, St. Petersburg is looking at the Tver region with interest. Literally a week ago, the project was presented to Anna Yuryevna Kuznetsova, the deputy speaker of the State Duma. She supported the project." (Meduza, October 10, 2024)

HOW RUSSIA SUBVERTED GEORGIA
Between 2017 and 2020, Bloomberg reports, Russia's intelligence agencies carried out an extensive hacking campaign targeting the Republic of Georgia's government, financial institutions, energy, and telecommunications sectors. Russian operatives also infiltrated the country's Foreign Ministry, central bank, and key infrastructure, gaining access to email systems, electricity companies, oil terminals, and media organizations. This espionage effort, led by the GRU (Russian military intelligence) and FSB (Russia's Federal Security Service), allowed Moscow to disrupt critical infrastructure if needed and occurred during Georgia's shift toward Western integration. The hacking intensified ahead of Georgia's pivotal 2020 elections, with Russian hackers, particularly from the GRU, infiltrating Georgia's Central Election Commission, compromising emails and sensitive election-related communications. Major media outlets, such as Imedi and Maestro, were also targeted, allowing Moscow to influence public opinion.

This extensive penetration, experts say, remains a threat. "Russia has been targeting and infiltrating Georgia for many years," Natia Seskuria of the Tbilisi-based Regional Institute for Security Studies confirmed recently. "This is extremely concerning and it’s particularly important in light of the upcoming elections." And despite persistent warnings from Western allies, Georgia's response remains unclear, and appears to be colored by Tbilisi's drift away from the West, and back into Moscow's orbit. (Bloomberg, October 22, 2024)

[EDITORS' NOTE: The effects of Russia's extensive penetration can be felt in the reaction to Georgia's latest parliamentary election, which took place this past weekend. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili has refused to recognize the results - in which the ruling, and increasingly pro-Russian, “Georgian Dream” party eked out a majority despite intense domestic opposition. Instead, she has called for protests in response to what she has characterized as a political contest rigged by the Kremlin. "We've seen that Russian propaganda was directly used," she said, accusing Georgian Dream of "working hand-in-hand with Russia" and "probably" receiving assistance from Russian security services.]