NOW, THE GULF NORMALIZES HEZBOLLAH
Israel's ongoing war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and the prospect of a potential conflict between Israel and Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah militia, continue to roil regional politics. In what amounts to a major policy shift, the Arab League has revoked its previous designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. Back in 2016, the 22-member bloc was near-unanimous in its decision to blacklist Hezbollah. The move reflected regional worries over the militia's chief sponsor, Iran, as well discontent with the group's role in propping up the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Now, however, the bloc is singing a different tune. According to Hossam Zaki, the League's assistant secretary-general, the decision was made because of Hezbollah's anticipated "major role in Lebanon's future." (BBC, March 11, 2016; Foreign Desk News, July 1, 2024)
[EDITORS' NOTE: The move not only represents a recognition of Hezbollah's strength and political staying power; the group is now estimated to boast 100,000 members, an arsenal of 120,000 or more short-range rockets and missiles, and an annual budget of some $700 million. It is also a not-so-subtle political overture to Tehran, which has emerged over the past half year as a major beneficiary of the regional geopolitical shifts that have accompanied the current war.]
A DANGEROUS BLIND SPOT IN MOSCOW
Preoccupied with its ongoing war against Ukraine, Russia is ignoring important signs of mounting Islamist militancy within its own borders, experts say. Recently, gunmen in Makhachkala and Derbent, the two largest cities in the country's North Caucasus republic of Dagestan, carried out attacks against a police office, multiple churches and a synagogue. But, Russian experts say, the Kremlin's focus on Ukraine has made it slow to react to, or even acknowledge, this and other developments that point to a growing Islamist threat within the country. "Naturally, the special services now have a main task related to the interests of the regime in the occupied [Ukrainian] territories," says veteran human rights expert Sergei Lukashevsky, who now lives in exile. "Their attention to everything else is on a residual basis." (Voice of America, June 27, 2024)
FLASHPOINT: NIGERIA
In a chilling reminder of the ongoing threat posed by militancy in northeastern Nigeria, a series of suicide bombings carried out by women have shaken the bustling city of Gwoza. The explosions targeted a wedding, a funeral, and a location near a hospital. The tactics resemble those of al-Qaeda affiliate Boko Haram, which has forced women and teenage girls to carry out attacks at public gatherings, including schools, markets, and religious buildings, in the past. This time out, however, the Islamist group has not claimed responsibility.
For their part, Nigerian officials are doing their best to downplay the incident. In an address to the nation, President Bola Tinubu called the attack "desperate" and labeled it an "isolated episode." This tracks with governmental claims to have successfully degraded the militant group in recent times. However, security analysts are striking a more cautious note. They point out that the attacks required significant planning and operational capabilities – suggesting that the threat to Abuja posed by Islamic militancy remains both clear and present. (New York Times, June 30, 2024; The Independent, July 5, 2024)
IRAN SEEKS A BROADER ANTI-ISRAEL FRONT
As Israel's war in the Gaza Strip continues, Iran is seeking to mobilize a new (and surprising) ally in its multi-front fight with the Jewish state. Last month, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani held a phone call with his Taliban counterpart, Amir Khan Muttaqi, exploring "the imperative of unified Islamic efforts to exert pressure on Israel," and the possibility of carrying out "joint actions" against it, Iran Internationalreports. The call follows rumors, also floated by Iran, that the Taliban might be prepared to send "martyrdom" forces to Gaza if Israel's offensive against Hamas there continues.
The likelihood of such an alliance, however, remains low. For one thing, Shi'ite Iran and the Sunni Taliban have long had a fraught relationship – one that has been exacerbated by border frictions since the Taliban reassumed control of neighboring Afghanistan in the Fall of 2021. For another, observers believe that, given the geographic distance and practical problems closer to home, the Taliban as a whole isn't likely to take up arms against Israel, despite the public statements of some of its officials. (Iran International, June 19, 2024)
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