A HOUTHI HEADACHE...
Following Hamas' October 7th campaign of terror, Israel launched a large-scale military offensive in the Gaza Strip designed to degrade and destroy the Palestinian terror group. That effort, in turn, has drawn in other regional actors. One is the Houthis, Yemen's Iranian-supported militia, which launched a coordinated campaign of attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea, causing massive disruptions to maritime trade in and around the area. Nearly a year on, that campaign has continued, while the U.S.-led response has had only minimal success.
Since being established by the Biden administration in December 2023, the multinational maritime task force known as "Operation Prosperity Guardian" has carried out both offensive and defensive measures – protecting vessels passing through the Red Sea and launching preemptive strikes on Yemen itself. But while U.S. military officials claim credit for degrading Houthi capabilities, there is now growing pessimism that the group can be stopped militarily. According to Elisabeth Kendall, a Yemen specialist at the University of Cambridge, "we have very little leverage over the Houthis, and air strikes are unlikely to deter them." "The solution is not going to come at the end of a weapon system," Vice Admiral George Wikoff, who leads U.S. naval efforts in the Middle East, concurs. (VOA News, August 8, 2024)
...AMID MUDDLED U.S. POLICY
The Biden administration, meanwhile, appears uncertain of the proper approach to take toward the Yemeni group. The State Department is reportedly continuing to resist pressure from Capitol Hill to redesignate the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization under U.S. law. In a letter sent to Cong. Ritchie Torres (D-NY-15), the State Department's Assistant Secretary for Legislative Affairs, Naz Durakoglu, argued that classifying the Houthis as an FTO once more remains undesirable on humanitarian grounds. "An FTO designation triggers a criminal prohibition on knowingly providing material support or resources to an FTO, which cannot be mitigated by [Department of] Treasury licenses," the letter lays out. "The Houthis control ports and distribution access, thus an FTO designation would have major implications on food security and basic needs of the population because approximately 90 percent of products to meet basic needs in Yemen are commercially imported."
Instead, Durakoglu lays out, the Biden administration is sticking to a "wait and see" approach on the issue. "We will continue to monitor the Houthis' destabilizing activity against peaceful maritime trade and continue to consider additional designations as appropriate in the future," she writes. (Jewish Insider, September 18, 2024)
SWEDEN AND TURKEY TURN THE PAGE
Last year, Sweden's bid to abandon decades of formal neutrality and join the NATO alliance was stymied, at least temporarily, by opposition from Turkey. Ankara's resistance stemmed from irritation at Stockholm's laissez faire attitude toward elements of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Turkey sees as a cardinal threat. The logjam was only broken when then-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg brokered a "compact" between the two countries for closer security coordination, under which Sweden pledged to tighten its anti-terrorism laws.
That deal is now progressing, with the two sides setting plans for consultations during an upcoming visit to Ankara by Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard. The meetings - including one between Stenergard and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan - promise to be decisive in setting a new tenor for bilateral relations. (Reuters, September 17, 2024)
ISLAMIST TROUBLE IN RUSSIA'S HEARTLAND
The Kremlin has long wrestled with Islamist activity in its majority-Muslim regions. Most, however, has been confined to the restive republics of the North Caucasus (including Chechnya and Dagestan). Increasingly, though, signs of religious radicalization are visible in other regions as well. One is Tatarstan, to Moscow's east, where Russian law enforcement authorities have dismantled a "female terrorist cell" in recent days. "A significant amount of extremist literature banned in Russia, communications equipment and electronic storage devices used in terrorist activities were found and confiscated," authorities have disclosed. (The Moscow Times, September 18, 2024)
[EDITORS' NOTE: The Tatarstan raid is part of a larger nationwide crackdown on extremist elements launched by Moscow in the wake of the March terrorist assault on the Crocus concert hall in the nation's capital.]
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