Russia Policy Monitor No. 2647

A QUID PRO QUO FOR TEHRAN: NUCLEAR ASSISTANCE
Since the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022, Russia's long-standing strategic partnership with Iran has undergone massive changes. Traditionally deeply dependent on the Kremlin for international support, the Iranian regime has become an increasingly important component of the Russian war effort, providing the government of Vladimir Putin with key materiel such as drones, battlefield armor and even ballistic missiles. Russia, in turn, is apparently returning the favor - by helping Tehran with its ongoing nuclear effort.

At a mid-September meeting in Washington, President Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer reportedly huddled over credible reports that the Russian government is providing the Islamic Republic with critical assistance for its nuclear effort. The possibility of such a "doomsday deal" has been floated by Western officials before. "Russia is sharing technology that Iran seeks — this is a two way street — including on nuclear issues, as well as some space information," Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned publicly on a recent visit to London. (The Sun, September 14, 2024)

A TUSSLE OVER TBILISI'S POLITICAL DIRECTION
With elections in the Republic of Georgia on the horizon, Moscow is ramping up its support for the ruling "Georgian Dream" party of Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. Its strategy? To paint any opposition to the country's increasingly anti-democratic government as Western interference. "The U.S. State Department intends to use a new tool to interfere in Georgia's parliamentary elections on Oct. 26 in order to prevent the victory of Georgian Dream," Russia's foreign intelligence service, the SVR, has warned publicly. That "new tool," apparently, are plans by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to open an observer mission to monitor Georgia's late October polls. "Washington's intention is obvious and no longer surprising: give an excuse to Georgia's pro-Western opposition to launch mass protests with the aim of seizing power in the country by force," the SVR has charged. (The Moscow Times, September 12, 2024)

A SCANDAL IN CHISINAU
Igor Gorgan, Moldova's former military chief, has been charged with treason over allegations of "espionage on behalf of Russia." The Moldovan flag officer, who holds the rank of Brigadier-General, served as the chief of the Moldovan general staff from 2013-2016, and then again in 2019 under the administration of pro-Russian president Igor Dodon. Gorgan was ousted in 2021 during the subsequent tenure of pro-western president Maia Sandu. Investigative outlet The Insider previously reported that Gorgan had been an informant for the Russian military for years - a role that continued even after his ouster, with him using his contacts in the Defence Ministry to provide Russia with sensitive information on such things as military aid routes from Romania to Ukraine and the political situation in Moldova. Gorgan's communications with Russia are reported to have been especially active in April 2022, just after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Gorkan may be the most high-level traitor identified by Moldovan authorities to date, but he's hardly the only one. Chisinau, which has backed Ukraine with both aid and political support over the course of the war, has scrambled to stem an uptick in Russian subversive operations. This has resulted in the expulsion of dozens of Russian diplomats and embassy staff for espionage. (Kyiv Independent, September 19, 2024)

MOSCOW'S OMINOUS NEW NUCLEAR DOCTRINE
In a bid to deter stepped-up Western assistance to Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin has unveiled a series of planned changes to the country's nuclear doctrine. The changes were laid out at a recent meeting of the country's Security Council. The new document, which has yet to be officially approved, includes "a broader list of countries and military alliances that are subject to nuclear deterrence," lowers the threshold for the implementation of nuclear weapons, and expands Russia's nuclear umbrella to encompass Belarus, the Itar-TASS news agency reports. Most significantly, however, the document outlines that "[a]ggression against Russia by a non-nuclear country, but with the participation or support of a nuclear country... [will be viewed] as their joint attack on Russia" - a clear reference to a possible loosening of Western restrictions on Ukraine in its use of European- and U.S.-provided weaponry. (Itar-TASS, September 25, 2024)