Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 50

FRUITS OF THE RECENT ASEAN SUMMIT
The 47th ASEAN Summit was held in Kuala Lumpur on October 26–28, and the gathering showcased several noteworthy strategic developments in the region. One was a rare diplomatic breakthrough, as Thailand and Cambodia signed a formal ceasefire pact to establish withdrawal zones, joint monitoring, and ASEAN observer deployment. The summit also confirmed Timor-Leste's long-awaited accession as ASEAN's 11th member, concluding a decade-long membership bid and expanding the bloc's geographic reach. (Reuters, October 25, 2025; Nikkei Asia, October 28, 2025)

APEC SUMMIT WRAPS WITH U.S.-CHINA TRADE TRUCEL
Presidents Trump and Xi reached a trade-technology truce at the 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit, which took place October 31 - November 1. Xi sought to position China as a regional multilateral anchor, proposing a global AI cooperation forum named the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization. China is set to host the 2026 APEC Summit, raising questions about the participation of Taiwan, which Chinese officials said must comport with the "one China" principle. However, the U.S. reaffirmed that all members, including Taiwan (as "Chinese Taipei"), must maintain equal footing in future APEC events. (Al Jazeera, November 1, 2025; Reuters, November 1, 2025; Reuters, November 6, 2025)

JAPAN'S NEW PRIME MINISTER HITS THE GROUND RUNNING
In mid-October, Sanae Takaichi became Japan's first female prime minister after winning the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party on October 4. Her rise signals a shift toward more robust defense, stricter immigration enforcement, and a firmer stance on Taiwan and China. President Trump's state visit on October 28, Takaichi's first major foreign-policy appearance, highlighted stronger U.S.-Japan ties and focused on trade, security, and critical-minerals supply chains. The new Prime Minister has also shifted away from "strategic ambiguity" on Taiwan, stating in parliament that a Chinese military operation against Taiwan may put Japan in a "survival-threatening situation" and warrant the use of force. Beijing swiftly retaliated, summoning Japan's envoy in Beijing to oppose her remarks. Furthermore, according to Japan's Defence Ministry, three ships from the PLA Navy, including a Type 055 destroyer, were sighted passing Kyushu's Osumi Strait on November 12. (Nikkei Asia, October 28, 2025; Nikkei Asia, November 14, 2025; South China Morning Post, November 14, 2025)

AUSTRALIA AND U.S. STRIKE CRITICAL-MINERALS DEAL
The U.S. and Australia have concluded a new critical-minerals agreement intended to help strengthen supply chain resiliency by reducing U.S. dependence upon China for raw materials and rare earth minerals. The deal will result in significant investment in mining, processing and construction of infrastructure projects by both the United States and Australia as part of efforts to create a "Metals Bloc" that will allow for increased access to essential minerals for the defense and technology industries of both countries. The agreement solidifies Australia's position as a reliable upstream supplier for the United States, and a hub for next-generation allied defense manufacturing. It also represents part of America's ongoing efforts to reduce reliance on China and obtain materials for advanced technologies. (Nikkei Asia, October 21, 2025)

PAKISTAN-INDIA TENSIONS SPIKE ANEW AFTER TERROR ATTACKS
Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, accused both Kabul and New Delhi of collaborating with militants from the Islamist Tehreek‑i‑Taliban Pakistan (TTP) grop after a suicide bombing at a court in Islamabad killed 12 people earlier this month. The attack was the first major blast in Pakistan's capital since 2022. A thwarted attack at a cadet college close to the Afghan border also sparked additional concern.

The renewed tensions are raising concerns over deepening regional instablity in South Asia. "On one hand, you have cross-border conflicts and fragile ceasefires, and on the other, there is a wave of terror attacks and militant insurgencies, which are all contributing to the growing insecurity that we are witnessing," says Farwa Aamer of the Asia Society Policy Institute. (South China Morning Post, November 14, 2025)