Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 51

HONG KONG TAI PO FIRES SPUR CCP RESENTMENT
Devastating apartment fires in late November – Hong Kong's deadliest in decades – have intensified public anger toward the city's increasingly Beijing-aligned leadership. The blaze, which killed over 150 people, exposed deep-rooted problems in building-safety inspections and underscored years of regulatory drift under the CCP's "patriots-only" governance model. Furthermore, on November 28th, King Charles III issued a rare public message of condolence, expressing sorrow for the victims and praising community solidarity. The gesture resonated in Hong Kong, where the British monarchy remains associated with rule-of-law traditions that have eroded since the 1997 handover and, more recently, under China's 2017 National Security Law.

Public backlash was further fueled by comparisons to stricter mainland safety standards and by revelations surrounding construction materials. Bamboo scaffolding used in the Tai Po District buildings imported from mainland China, according to investigators and local media, were significantly more combustible and structurally weaker than materials previously used in Hong Kong. Residents argue that the shift toward mainland-sourced materials, driven by cost pressures, political integration, and loosened procurement oversight, introduced avoidable risks that compounded the fire's lethality. The incident represents a stark indictment of governance under CCP-aligned authorities, and has exacerbated Hong Kong's crisis of public confidence. (The Royal Family, November 28, 2025; The Guardian, December 2, 2025)

MONGOLIA SEEKS ECONOMIC ACCELERATION THROUGH EXPANDED RAIL LINKS
In order to speed up economic growth, Mongolia is looking to boost its rail connections to regional markets through expanded cross-border rail networks. Government officials in Ulaanbaatar now believe that expanding railway lines in the region can open up new trade opportunities and connect Mongolia's commodity-based economy with regional supply chains. Furthermore, Mongolian officials expect the improved rail infrastructure to reduce the cost of logistics, as well as improve export capacity for commodities important to the country's overall economic structure. The development of rail networks is envisioned as one of the tools to help achieve long-term, sustainable national growth by increasing foreign investment and reducing risks associated with the country's landlocked geography. However, notes the South China Morning Post, the success of these rail networks will rely heavily upon continued funding, successful execution, and the cooperation of neighboring nations – that is, Russia and China. (South China Morning Post, November 28, 2025)

CHINA-JAPAN TENSIONS DEEPEN
Beijing-Tokyo relations have deteriorated further in recent weeks on the political, military, and maritime fronts. China has condemned Tokyo's plans to export long-range missiles to the Philippines, an unprecedented move that would represent Japan's sharpest break yet from post-WWII arms export constraints and directly strengthen a regional counterweight to Chinese coercion. Maritime tensions have risen in tandem: in early December, the China Coast Guard forcefully expelled a Japanese fishing vessel operating near the Senkaku Islands, demonstrating Beijing's willingness to challenge Japanese jurisdiction and maintain constant calibrated pressure in the East China Sea. (Reuters, December 1, 2025; South China Morning Post, December 2, 2025)

PAKISTAN AND CHINA LAUNCH JOINT COUNTERTERRORISM EXERCISE
Pakistan and China initiated the ninth edition of their joint military counter-terrorism exercise, dubbed "Warrior-IX," at the National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Official reports noted that "Warrior-IX" will bring contingents of Pakistan's army and China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) into one combined force as part of an effort to enhance understanding between the two militaries, to improve interoperability between them, and to further develop bilateral military cooperation. Senior military officers of both countries attended the exercise's opening ceremonies, including representatives from the Pakistani Army and Maj Gen Bian Xiaoming of China's PLA Western Theater Command. "Warrior-IX" represents the continuation of a long-standing series of military exchanges between Islamabad and Beijing and represents a continued commitment to the development of defense cooperation between Beijing and Islamabad. (China Pakistan Economic Corridor, December 2, 2025)

TAIWAN GAINS U.S. REASSURANCE
The passing of the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act in Washington on December 2nd garnered warm applause in Taipei – and harsh criticism from Beijing. Taipei's leadership viewed the measure as a symbolic reaffirmation of U.S. support for Taiwan's democracy, as well as the possibility of broader unofficial partnership (as well as a boost of morale in the face of growing Chinese pressure). It is also an affirmation of the comparatively aggressive defense posture that has been embraced by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te.

In November, Lai announced a $40 billion, eight-year special defense package as part of a larger goal to increase the island's military expenditures to 5% of GDP by 2030 to deter a mainland invasion. Taiwan's current opposition parties, the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party, stopped legislative scrutiny of the defense funding measure on December 2nd. They claimed the government lacked openness and used scare tactics to justify a "blank check" budget, citing an imminent threat from China (which has instructed its military to be prepared to take the island by 2027). Protests were conducted by dissenters, social welfare, and labor groups to oppose the militarization of national goals at the expense of public welfare and social services. (South China Morning Post, November 26, 2025; Taipei Times, December 3, 2025; Reuters, December 3, 2025)