Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 52

CHINA'S EXPORT CONTROLS SPARK PROTEST FROM JAPAN...
Japan's government is protesting after China imposed new export controls on certain "dual-use" goods provided to the island nation. Coming as they do against the backdrop of diplomatic tensions between the two countries following comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi over the potential need to defend Taiwan, officials in Tokyo are viewing the new measures as political in nature. These restrictions also amplify growing Japanese concerns about China's increasing leverage over critical industrial supply chains that are essential to Japan. (Bloomberg, January 6, 2026)

...AS TAKAICHI DIGS IN
Chinese pressure, however, isn't prompting a change in Tokyo's posture. Prime Minister Takaichi recently doubled down on her comments about a Japanese role in a potential conflict over Taiwan. Takaichi invoked the 1960 Japan-U.S. security treaty, arguing that it would be meaningless if Japan was unwilling to support the U.S. in a potential conflict with China relating to Taiwan. Her comments make clear that her administration envisions an active role should a conflict over the island break out – although she has remained mum on precisely what specific actions Japan would take in such a scenario. (Taipei Times, January 28, 2026)

ANOTHER FLASHPOINT IN SINO-INDIAN TIES
A longstanding territorial dispute between India and China is resurfacing amid recent tensions. Beijing has consistently denied India's claims to the Shaksgam Valley while defending the continued development of infrastructure there associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), arguing that the are is located within China's sovereign territory, as defined by the 1963 Sino-Pakistan Boundary Agreement. For their part, officials in India have maintained that that agreement is null and void and should not apply to the disputed region. The issue is a sensitive one, both because of the potential economic dividends associated with China's claim, and due to the Valley's proximity to the disputed region of Kashmir, which represents a core security priority for New Delhi. (Times of India, January 12, 2026)

DESPITE CEASEFIRE, THAI-CAMBODIAN TENSIONS PERSIST
Cambodian officials have charged that Thai forces are still occupying parts of their country, violating a December 23rd ceasefire that ended fierce fighting along the common border between the two. Officials with Cambodia's Foreign Ministry allege that Thailand's military continues to occupy civil areas inside on Cambodian soil – a deployment the Thai government has said is a result of agreements reached for the ceasefire. "The maintenance of current troop positions following the ceasefire constitutes direct compliance with agreed de-escalation measures," the Thai government said in a statement. "This cannot be misconstrued as territorial occupation." (Reuters, January 14, 2026)

CHINA'S NEW CANAL PROJECT FOR SOUTHEAST ASIAN TRADE
China is making progress on a new waterway designed to link its inland regions to markets in Southeast Asia. The Pinglu Canal project, a 134-kilometer waterway designed to run through China's southern Qinzhou province out to the Beibu Gulf, is intended to transform regional shipping routes and reduce logistical bottlenecks for exports to ASEAN, as well as providing a direct inland-to-maritime shipping route that will lower transport costs and allow China to grow its trade with member states. Officials in China see the new waterway a part of a broader initiative to foster economic integration with neighboring countries through enhanced transportation connections and increased access to international markets, specifically for bulk commodities and industrial products. Construction on the project, which has a projected pricetag of over $10 billion, is slated to be done later this year. (South China Morning Post, January 30, 2026)