Russia Policy Monitor No. 2624

March 29, 2024 Ilan I. Berman, Chloe E. Smith, Walker Robinson
Related Categories: Arms Control and Proliferation; Economic Sanctions; Europe Military; Intelligence and Counterintelligence; Islamic Extremism; Missile Defense; Public Diplomacy and Information Operations; Terrorism; Warfare; NATO; Russia; Ukraine
PUTIN POINTS THE FINGER... AFTER A FASHION
In the wake of a March 22nd terrorist attack on a concert hall in Moscow that killed 137 and injured more than 100, the Kremlin is pointing the finger of blame – at Ukraine. In a public address after the attack, responsibility which had already been claimed by the Islamic State, Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to mention the terror group altogether, instead asserting that the gunmen had links to Ukraine and were attempting to seek refuge there. Absent from Putin's comments as well was any mention of prior warnings that had been given to Moscow by the United States. Previously, the Russian government had discounted information provided by Washington about potential impending terrorist incidents in the country as an attempt to frighten the Russian public and influence the country's then-looming election.

For its part, Kyiv has vociferously denied Russia's allegations, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alluding to the attack as a potential "false flag" operation that might have been carried out by Russia itself. The United States, meanwhile, has attributed the attack to the Islamic State, refuting any Ukrainian role whatsoever.

The question now is what could come next. Experts believe that the March 22nd attack could be damaging to the Kremlin, eroding Putin's reputation as a competent defender of the homeland. They also expect that the result will be an intensification of Russia's attacks on Ukraine, as well as further recruitment of Russians, in "response" to the terrorist attack. (PBS, March 24, 2024)

NUCLEAR PRESSURE ON NATO'S DOORSTEP
Tactical nuclear weapons have been relocated by Russia to Belarus, bringing them nearer to NATO territory with the intent of exerting pressure on the Alliance's eastern flank amid ongoing tensions over Ukraine. The move, announced publicly by Russian President Vladimir Putin, follows years of nuclear threats against the West designed to diminish support for Ukraine. Lithuania's defense minister has confirmed the Russian deployment, urging a stronger Western response similar to when Russia moved nuclear weapons to the Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad. Western officials have been tracking the deployment, viewing it as a political message rather than a significant military shift. Putin has denied immediate plans for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but NATO leaders are nonetheless reassessing their defense strategies in response to Russia's nuclear buildup, recognizing the need for credible deterrence. (Foreign Policy, March 14, 2024)

MOSCOW'S UNPOPULAR WAR
Russia has experienced a drastic increase in the number of desertions from its armed forces since the start of the Kremlin's "special military operation” against Ukraine more than two years ago. Over 4,300 people were convicted for the "unauthorized abandonment of their unit" in 2023, a five-fold increase from the year prior. Moreover, 289 soldiers were charged for disobeying orders, a charge that had only been used nine times since 2018. This trend, moreover, is liable to continue to intensify. Now that the country's presidential election has passed, the Russian government is expected to institute another draft to supplement ongoing manpower shortages in its war on Ukraine. (Newsweek, March 20, 2024)

PUTTING THE SQUEEZE ON THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Despite initially finding loopholes to Western sanctions that allowed its economy to limp along, the Kremlin is now facing an increasingly adverse economic situation, the Wall Street Journal reports. As the United States intensifies its pressure on European and Middle Eastern countries to disengage with Russian businesses, pre-existing workarounds appear to be closing. For instance, Dubai-based bank Emirates NBD, a crucial player in the context of Russian oil exports and funds held abroad, has closed down accounts linked to Russian oil and fertilizer.

Turkey, meanwhile, has also acquiesced to U.S. pressure and diminished its trade ties with Moscow. Similarly, the U.S. has pressured Austrian banks to cut ties with Russia. These heightened U.S. efforts have disrupted Russia's energy exports, stifling key financial resources for the conflict in Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, March 19, 2024)