Russia Policy Monitor No. 2631

RUSSIA'S ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
Russian President Vladimir Putin, now 71 years old, secured another term in office back in March in a national election widely panned by observers as being politically manipulated. Putin's new mandate keeps him in office for another six years. But, pursuant to constitutional amendments passed in 2021, he is eligible to stay in Russia's top office until 2036. Nevertheless, Putin's grip on power is more tenuous than it seems, argues the Hoover Institution's Stephen Kotkin in the pages of Foreign Affairs, and it's therefore prudent for American policymakers to begin thinking about the potential paths Russia's evolution could take in the years ahead. Kotkin posits five.

The first is "Russia as France," which supposes that the country could experience an evolution into a stable, post-imperial and largely technocratic order – although such a scenario, Kotkin notes, requires a figure like former French president Charles de Gaulle who is not in evidence in Russia today. The second is Russian retrenchment, in which the country adopts a more modest, less confrontational stance vis-à-vis the West, either after Putin or despite him. The third scenario envisions Russia as a vassal state, overshadowed by a rising China and unable to maintain balance in its strategic relationship with Beijing. Fourth, Russia could become like North Korea, "domestically repressive, internationally isolated and transgressive, armed with nuclear weapons, and abjectly dependent on China but still able to buck Beijing." Finally, Russia could descend into chaos, with internal political divisions making it an attractive target for predation by the likes of China, Finland, Japan and others – each of which have legitimate greivances against Moscow and maintain territorial disputes with it.

What might all this mean for America? The United States, Kotkin counsels, should "create the right incentives" for Russia to retrench, while simultaneously preparing for "a Russia that inflicts even greater spoliation on a global scale." (Foreign Affairs, May/June 2024)

THE PENTAGON'S SATELLITE SECURITY CONCERNS BREAK INTO THE OPEN
During a recent House Armed Services subcommittee hearing, John Plumb, the Biden administration's Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, revealed that Russia is seriously investing in the development of an "indiscriminate" space nuclear device aimed at targeting satellites. The development, Plumb revealed, has heightened concerns within the Pentagon over the potential threat to global satellite operations. He noted devastating potential consequences of the usage of such a weapon, including rendering low-Earth orbit unusable for up to a year as a result of the radiation released by a nuclear detonation. Moreover, Plumb noted, most satellites are not hardened against such blasts, and could sustain significant damage as a result. The testimony marks the first time the Biden administration has publicly discussed the Russian anti-satellite capability. (NBC News, May 1, 2024)

RUSSIA BLACKLISTS FREEDOM HOUSE
Russian authorities have declared U.S. democracy watchdog Freedom House an "undesirable" entity under Russian law. The action, announced by the Office of the Prosecutor-General, makes individuals associated with the NGO subject to potential legal repercussions under Russian law. The justification given by the Office for the ban is that Freedom House has been involved in promoting "the so-called 'dominant' role of the United States in the world."

The Kremlin has good reason to be displeased with Freedom House. In its latest annual survey, the organization ranked Russia as "not free," with a score of just 13/100 on its Global Freedom Scale. It indicated that the ranking derived from the Kremlin's escalating assault on individual rights and citizen freedoms following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (Reuters, May 7, 2024)

RUSSIAN INCOME FOR UKRAINIAN DEFENSE
Europe has hit upon a new way to bolster Ukrainian efforts to defend against Russian aggression. Ambassadors from across the European Union have reached a consensus on allocating to Ukraine the income generated from confiscated assets belonging to Russia's Central Bank. This measure is anticipated to deliver €3 billion in supplemental funds to Kyiv per year, with the majority expected to be used for military equipment. Pending approval from EU nations, disbursement is expected to commence in the summer. (Foreign Desk News, May 9, 2024)

[EDITORS' NOTE: The European decision reflects what has been an ongoing – and pitched – international debate about how, precisely, to repurpose Russian assets. Approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian funds are currently being held in various European jurisdictions. And while EU states have stopped short of apportioning those assets outright to Ukraine, there is now broad consensus that the revenues generated by these funds can and should be provided to Kyiv as a way of supplementing Western aid to Ukraine's war effort.]