Russia Policy Monitor No. 2634

MORE CRIMINALS TO THE FRONT LINES
Since the onset of its invasion of Ukraine nearly two-and-a-half years ago, Russia has sought to compensate for chronic manpower shortages in its military through a variety of means, including by recruiting criminals to fight on the front lines. Now, this policy has been expanded further still. According to an investigation by BBC News Russian, in the summer of 2023 the Russian State Duma authorized the recruitment of individuals still under investigation and awaiting trial into the country's armed forces. Under the revamped policy, the suspects can avoid criminal liability in return for their military service. Initially, the law only pertained to suspects charged with low to medium severity offenses; however, since March 2024, these limitations have been removed.

The bargain, however, is heavily weighted toward the Kremlin – and apparently offers only a temporary reprieve from justice. Once recruited, new soldiers need to continue their military service until the end of the war, and their contracts do not automatically guarantee the closure of their criminal cases. Rather, in cases where the investigation has been completed but a verdict has not been reached, legal proceedings will be resumed once the individual return from the war. (Meduza, May 27, 2024)

ANOTHER WARNING TO THE WEST
As Ukraine begins to use Western-supplied weapons to strike within Russian territory, Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that Moscow might respond in kind – by supplying arms to nations who to target the West. "If someone thinks it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to attack our territory and create problems for us, why don't we have the right to supply our weapons," Putin asked reporters in St Petersburg. His statement followed confirmation that Ukraine had used American weapons to strike within Russian territory. Germany has also authorized Ukraine to target Russian soil with its long-range weapons, which Putin warned could harm Berlin-Moscow relations. (Guardian, June 5, 2024)

HOW CRYPTO IS HELPING RUSSIA'S RICH
In the face of pervasive Western sanctions, how are Russia's wealthy elites accessing their financial assets? Part of the answer has to do with cryptocurrency, a recent report by Transparency International Russia has found. Businesses in Moscow, according to the financial watchdog, have capitalized on the opportunities for money laundering and sanctions evasion afforded by anonymous cryptocurrency to ply a lucrative trade in the transfer of money out of Russia — a service that has been in high demand since the start of the war.

In all, Transparency International Russia uncovered eight Russia-based crypto exchanges willing to transfer USDT, a cryptocurrency pegged to the U.S. dollar, and deliver the sum in cash to the customer in London. However, this is not a publicly advertised service; customers must specifically request it. And unlike conventional banking systems, no identification documents need to be provided at any point in the process. Fittingly, the couriers delivering the cash speak Russian. The service, the March report notes, would be particularly useful for Russian individuals whose assets have been frozen abroad since the start of the war. (Transparency International UK, March 15, 2023)

A DIFFERENT WAY OF INFLUENCING EUROPEAN OPINION
The Kremlin is developing new ways to increase its influence and conduct espionage within the European Union. In early 2023, it created a news outlet called the Voice of Europe, with the initial goal of presenting oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk (who led a pro-Russia political party in Ukraine until the start of the war) as a viable alternative to current Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Since then, however, the Voice of Europe has transformed into a more ambitious effort aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and sow discontent within Europe. According to an investigation carried out by the Czech Republic's counterintelligence service, the Voice of Europe has been offering far-right European politicians large sums of money in exchange for planting Kremlin propaganda in Western media.

One politician who has been implicated in this effort is Petr Bystron, a top member of Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. This connection, however, has hardly proved fatal; despite allegations of ties with Russia, AfD is predicted to take second or third in upcoming elections for the European Parliament. But the effort does underscore a clear focus; by increasing support for the far-right in Europe, the Kremlin hopes to make the passage of additional aid for Ukraine more difficult, thereby gaining a key strategic advantage. (Washington Post, June 3, 2024)