Russia Policy Monitor No. 2637

AFTER DAGESTAN ATTACK, A WAR ON "WAHHABISM"
Last month, an Islamist terrorist attack in Russia's north Caucasus republic of Dagestan killed twenty-one people, including fifteen police officers and one member of the Russian National Guard. In the aftermath of the incident, regional leaders are closing ranks – and threatening retribution. Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman of the neighboring republic of Chechnya, convened a late-June meeting with local security and law enforcement officials in which he issued a stark warning to his subjects. In a video from the meeting posted on social messaging app Telegram, Kadyrov lays out an ultimatum, threatening collective punishment for the family of anyone involved in the incident. The video also calls upon "the Chechen people" to be more vigilant in ascertaining the "symptoms of Wahhabism," and to inform on relatives that exhibit them to local authorities. A subsequent, more formal statement from Kadyrov's government struck a more measured tone, laying out that "every Chechen should be especially vigilant towards their closest relatives to protect them from the harmful influence of terrorist ideology." (Meduza, June 26, 2024)

RUSSIA'S SECRETIVE COURTS
In March 2023, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was wrongfully detained by Russian authorities on espionage charges. More than a year later, his formal trial has begun. However, this battle is unlikely to be won in court, and on the merits, given the nature of Russia's opaque and largely unaccountable court system. "Gershkovich is now ensnared in a shadowy judicial system that operates largely at the service of the state security apparatus," the Wall Street Journal details. "Government prosecutors wield immense power and control, information is restricted, defense evidence is sidelined and Moscow's propaganda machine is deployed to discredit defendants unable to speak for themselves. Few are ever acquitted."

Indeed, according to Russian lawyer Ivan Pavlov, Russian authorities have established "a one-sided game" by creating conditions "that make it impossible for a lawyer to work effectively with the materials of the case." Ahead of the trial, lawyers may access and analyze sensitive court documents, but they are not permitted to copy or take photos of them. Instead, they are provided very limited time with the documents under the watchful eye of the FSB, which has gained significant power over the judiciary during President Vladimir Putin's tenure. Meanwhile, judges who deal with cases involving state secrets must receive permission to leave the country, and all judges, aside from those on the Constitutional Court, are appointed by the president. Additionally, closed court proceedings are not recorded, meaning that the only records of the sessions are those produced by the state prosecutors and judges. 

As a result, Gershkovich's fate sadly appears to be sealed, and the stakes are high. "Conviction could carry a prison sentence of 10 to 20 years," the Journal notes. What hope does exist comes in the form of a prisoner swap. Putin indicated earlier this year that he might be open to such an exchange, and the Kremlin has reportedly sent proposals to Washington about possible deals. (Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2024)

HOW THE WAR HAS COME TO (SOME PARTS OF) RUSSIA
Belgorod, a Russian city near the Ukrainian border, experienced a major shift in December 2023 when a Ukrainian rocket attack killed 25 civilians and wounded over a hundred, marking the start of what have since become frequent assaults that have so far claimed 200 lives and injured 800 more. Belgorod, historically connected to Ukraine's Kharkiv, has become a frontline city, facing daily bombardments and significant infrastructural damage as the Russian-Ukrainian war rages on. Known for its modern housing and excellent schools, Belgorod now focuses on concrete shelters, online education, and emergency medical training. It has experienced a significant exodus, with 26,000 homes damaged, 9,000 children evacuated, and an estimated 150,000 residents relocating, according to the ExtremeScan Group. (The Economist, June 24, 2024)

MOSCOW TILTS EVEN FURTHER EAST
At the recent St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, it was announced that over 230 events will take place as part of what is being billed as the "Russia-China cross-cultural year." This move reflects Russia's efforts to build new cultural and diplomatic relationships with countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, as a way of lessening its mounting international isolation on account of the Ukraine war. With traditional Western alliances ruptured, Russia is promoting its "anti-colonial" stance to attract new allies and establish itself as a key cultural player among partners like China, Iran, North Korea, South Africa, and Venezuela. 

In turn, the growing list of countries deemed to be "unfriendly" has heavily influenced the Kremlin's cultural policy, causing the suspension of many European cultural exchanges and the pursuit of new partners. This shift has also affected Russia's internal cultural programming, with theaters and museums adding more Chinese elements and strengthening ties with Middle Eastern and African nations. These efforts, opposition news outlet The Insider details, are part of a broader strategy to adapt to geopolitical realities by establishing long-term cultural and educational programs focused on mutual cooperation and leveraging shared anti-Western sentiments. (The Insider, June 24, 2024)