Russia Policy Monitor No. 2638

July 22, 2024 Ilan I. Berman,  Chloe E. Smith,  Ashton Walter
Related Categories: Arms Control and Proliferation; Democracy and Governance; Energy Security; Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues; Intelligence and Counterintelligence; International Economics and Trade; Public Diplomacy and Information Operations; Warfare; India; Russia; Ukraine

NOW, THE KREMLIN TAKES AIM AT NAVALNY'S WIDOW
Five months after the suspicious death of her husband in a Russian penal colony, a Russian court has issued a warrant for Yulia Navalnaya's arrest. Although the statement from the court did not list any specific charges, the order is likely connected to Navalnaya's role in the Anti-Corruption Foundation that was started by her husband, anti-Kremlin campaigner Aleksei Navalny. The Anti-Corruption Foundation has been deemed an extremist organization by Russian authorities since 2021, forcing it to operate in exile in Lithuania. While alive, Navalny worked to expose the corruption within the Kremlin by documenting the estates, yachts and financial assets of President Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials. Since his death, Navalnaya has continued her husband's work, vowing to topple the present regime in Moscow. (New York Times, July 9, 2024)

A NEW BARGAIN WITH NEW DELHI
Earlier this month, fresh off his most recent electoral victory, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to Moscow on a very public two-day state visit designed to boost ties between Moscow and New Delhi. There, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for meetings that netted some clear results for India – as well as for the Kremlin. 

The first is tighter nuclear ties between the two countries, with Russian state-run nuclear energy agency ROSATOM mapping out a new "nuclear plan" that entails building six new nuclear power plants in India. The two countries are also likely to sign a long-term agreement for Russia to supply uranium for the nuclear power plant in Tamil Nadu in the near future. 

Military cooperation between the two countries seems to on the upswing as well. Against the backdrop of the Ukraine war, India has worked to decouple itself from its historic dependence on arms supplies from Russia, which previously supplied the Indian military with roughly 65% of its hardware. Nevertheless, military contacts are growing in other ways. Part of the discussions between Modi and Putin reportedly involved an expanded framework for cooperative trainings, port calls, humanitarian assistance and joint disaster relief operations. 

Finally, Modi secured the release of Indians who have inadvertently become entangled in Russia's ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. In recent months, a mini-scandal has erupted between the two countries over Indian nationals who were lured into joining Russia's army. An estimated 35-50 Indians traveled to Russia for high paying "support jobs" in the military, drawn by the lure of lucrative contracts. But these individuals were subsequently conscripted into active combat as part of the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to ameliorate its chronic manpower shortages - a state of affairs that caused no shortage of friction with India. Now, in an apparent confidence building measure to Modi, Putin has promised to provide these individuals with early discharges. (Reuters, July 9, 2024; Newsweek, July 9, 2024)

NEW TRADECRAFT FOR RUSSIA'S SPIES
A recent investigation conducted by The Insider and Re:Baltica has shed light on the new ways by which Russia's military intelligence service, the GRU, has been adapting its recruitment and operational tactics amid growing tensions between Moscow and European countries. In terms of recruitment, the investigation found, the GRU has relied on social media platforms, namely Telegram, to target subjects in at-risk communities across the continent (usually young males from rough backgrounds or with criminal records). Once recruited, the first assignment for such individuals is usually something small and manageable, like spray painting a graffiti message. However, as the asset becomes more comfortable, they are assigned missions with higher stakes, like throwing a Molotov cocktail into a Ukrainian military facility. For their work, these recruits are paid anywhere from hundreds to thousands of Euros. In this way, the GRU has created a web of individuals to conduct sabotage missions abroad, with the goal weakening Europe's support for Ukraine. (The Insider, July 10, 2024)