Russia Policy Monitor No. 2644

NATIONALIST SENTIMENT, REGIONAL DIVISIONS RESURFACE
Nationalism and xenophobia are once again straining the Kremlin's relations with its regions. Following a soccer match between the capital's soccer team, Spartak, and Dynamo, the team of Dagestan's capital, Makhachkala, the slogan "Russia for the Russians" appeared online, outraging Dagestanis. The phrase, despite being declared extremist in 2010 by Russian authorities, elicited no response from officials in Moscow – raising suspicions of tacit governmental approval for the incitement.

The incident highlights the ethnic tensions that continue to simmer in Russia's North Caucasus. One Dagestani activist compared those who promoted the slogan to terrorists, while senior regional officials have remained silent, further frustrating locals. That, argues ethnic affairs expert Paul Goble, is a combustible mix. "[T]he reaction in Dagestan to the inaction of the Russian police suggests that someone in Moscow is now playing with fire," he notes. "U]nless the central authorities come down hard on anyone attempting to mobilize people on the basis of 'Russia for the Russians'... [they] could trigger a conflagration." (Window on Eurasia, September 8, 2024)

RUSSIA'S YOUTH RAGE AGAINST THE WAR MACHINE
Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, more and more teenagers are being imprisoned for alleged sabotage, often for intentionally damaging infrastructure (like railroad tracks) used to transport military supplies. At least 20 Russians between the ages of 15 to 17, many from areas along the Trans-Siberian Railway, are currently being detained by authorities, a new report from opposition outlet Mediazona has laid out. The study shows that minors made up about a third of the 66 people arrested for sabotage in late 2022 and early 2023, with their actions resulting in penalties ranging from 10 years behind bars to life in prison. Russia's Federal Financial Monitoring Service lists minors accused of terrorism or extremism in its public registry, with 54 seventeen-year-olds, 21 sixteen-year-olds, and 13 fifteen-year-olds now documented. (Meduza, September 6, 2024)

NERVOUS IN NORWAY
Officials in Oslo are increasingly alarmed that Russia, bogged down in its war on Ukraine and behaving more and more boldly toward Western nations supporting Kyiv, could soon target Norway's energy infrastructure in retaliation. "The risk level has changed," the head of Norway's national intelligence service, Vice Admiral Nils Andreas Stensoenes, has said. "We believe sabotage is more likely, and we see acts of sabotage happening in Europe now which indicate that they (the Russians) have moved a bit on that scale."

Norway has good reason to be nervous. The Nordic state boasts a vast undersea energy infrastructure "consisting of gas pipelines stretching some 9,000 km (5,590 miles)" as well as "90 offshore oil and gas fields," Reuters reports. This architecture remains "difficult to protect," despite the fact that – in the wake of the September 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines – its government deployed the country's navy to safeguard maritime energy assets. (Reuters, September 11, 2024)

EUROPE DRAWS A RED LINE...
Iran's decision to provide missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine is a red line that will receive a "strong response" from the EU, European officials have warned in the wake of revelations that the Islamic Republic has delivered ballistic missiles to Moscow. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has publicly confirmed the delivery, and told reporters that "a substantial set of decisive and targeted measures" against Tehran are now being considered by the bloc. "A delivery of ballistic missiles will likely assist Russia's escalatory bombing campaign against Ukrainian civilians, cities and civilian infrastructure, further increasing civilian casualties and destruction," the EU's foreign affairs spokesman, Peter Stano, has told reporters. "Such support to Russia's terrorising campaign against Ukraine's population will be met with a strong EU response." (Reuters, September 10, 2024)

...AS MOSCOW LEANS INTO ITS ALLIANCE WITH TEHRAN
Kremlin officials, meanwhile, are seeking to strengthen their strategic ties to the Islamic Republic still further. According to Security Council Secretary (and former Defense Minister) Sergei Shoigu, the two countries are close to inking a new bilateral treaty. "We look forward to the imminent conclusion of a new basic interstate treaty. We are completing the internal procedures necessary for the preparation of documents for signing by the presidents," Shoigu has said.

The agreement has been discussed between the two countries for some time now, and while details remain scant, observers are anticipating that it will outline a framework for a potentially significant deepening of the already-robust strategic ties between Russia and Iran. "A comprehensive agreement might formalize closer political ties, potentially strengthening their shared opposition to the West, particularly in light of the Ukraine conflict and sanctions," Mohammed Soliman of the Middle East Institute has noted. "While not explicitly mentioned, the agreement could lead to further collaboration on military technology or intelligence sharing." (Breaking Defense, July 1, 2024; Reuters, September 10, 2024)