PUTIN'S NEO-SOVIET PENAL SYSTEM
The penal system erected in recent years by the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin may be smaller in size than the infamous GULAG system of the USSR, but it nonetheless bears a clear resemblance to it - and those similarities may grow over time. That's the conclusion of two recent studies in the Russian media, in publications like vKrisis and Verstka. Those reports, Russia expert Paul Goble lays out, document that Russia's penal system has shrunk in size by more than half from when Putin took power a quarter century ago. Back then, approximately a million Russians were behind bars. Today, "only about 430,000 are."
Nevertheless, the studies note, today "are far more political prisoners than there used to be and more torture." Therefore, Goble argues, "it is entirely possible that as the Putin regime becomes more repressive, the number of politicals and of prisoners more generally will increase and ever more of the characteristics of Stalin's GULAG come to dominate the one that the current Kremlin leader is building." (Window on Eurasia, October 13, 2024)
A NEW ALLY FOR PUTIN IN THE EUROZONE?
Pro-Russian forces in Central Europe may expand their ranks next year, if former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and his Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) party dominate the country's 2025 parliamentary elections. Babiš, a populist billionaire who served as the Czech Republic's prime minister from 2017 to 2021, is gaining popularity in Czech national polls, with growing support for his anti-Ukraine, anti-EU rhetoric. ANO has already racked up majorities in recent regional elections, and could parlay that popularity into parliamentary dominance next year. If it does, and Babiš regains power, he is expected to adopt a more nationalist, anti-EU, and pro-Russian policy, similar to that of Slovakia's Robert Fica and Hungary's Viktor Orban. (Politico, October 28, 2024)
A HELPING HAND FROM PYONGYANG...
North Korea is believed to have sent approximately 10,000 troops to Russia, with some now moving toward the front lines near Ukraine, prompting concerns from the Pentagon about their potential involvement in combat. "A portion of those soldiers have already moved closer to Ukraine, and we are increasingly concerned that Russia intends to use these soldiers in combat or to support combat operations against Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk Oblast near the border with Ukraine," a spokesman for the Pentagon has confirmed. NATO and Ukraine have also raised the alarm, warning that the DPRK's involvement could have global implications. For Russia, the North Korean deployment can be expected to aid strained forces in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops have managed to maintain control following their recent incursion into Russian territory. (Politico, October 28, 2024)
...RESHUFFLES THE UKRAINIAN BATTLEFIELD...
The deployment of North Korean soldiers has the potential to reconfigure the fight between Moscow and Kyiv - and the degree of support offered to Ukraine by the United States. Pentagon officials have warned that if North Korea actively joins Russia's war, it would remove limits on how U.S.-supplied weapons can be used by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian officials, for their part, are urging precisely this sort of move. "The bottom line: listen to Ukraine. The solution: lift restrictions on our long-range strikes against Russia now," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha tweeted recently. (Reuters, October 28, 2024)
...AND SPURS A RETHINK IN SEOUL
Pyongyang's decision to play an active role in Russia's war, meanwhile, could lead to big changes in Asia. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol previously warned that, if the DPRK does indeed get involved in Russia's "special military operation," his country would in turn wade into the conflict as well, on Ukraine's side. "If North Korea dispatches special forces to the Ukraine war as part of Russia-North Korea cooperation, we will support Ukraine in stages and also review and implement measures necessary for security on the Korean Peninsula," Yoon warned publicly last week. Now that North Korea's direct participation in Russia's war has been confirmed by multiple sources, observers are anticipating a policy shift in Seoul. (Al-Jazeera, November 4, 2024)
[EDITORS' NOTE: Should it happen, South Korean direct involvement (via the provision of weapons) would serve as a boon to a Ukrainian government increasingly on the defensive. Up to now, South Korean assistance to Kyiv has been confined to humanitarian support and replenishing depleted NATO stocks.]
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