Russia Policy Monitor No. 2655

FSB CLAIMS TACTICAL VICTORY IN CRIMEA
Russia's main intelligence service, the Federal Security Service (FSB), is claiming victory after reportedly foiling a Ukrainian plot to carry out an arson attack on a railway in the Crimean Peninsula. A 29-year-old man was detained near the Balaklava power station in Sevastopol before allegedly attempting to set fire to railway equipment using Molotov cocktails. The FSB claimed the suspect proactively contacted Ukrainian security services in September 2023, providing photos and videos of Russian targets. He allegedly received $1,000 for the attack. The man was charged with "secretly cooperating with a foreign state or organization" and "attempted terrorism." Ukraine has not commented on the claims. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, years before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (The Moscow Times, November 12, 2024)

A WESTERN WARNING REGARDING THE EMERGING AXIS...
Recent months have seen growing strategic cooperation among Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, and that convergence has far-reaching implications for global security, NATO's new chief has warned publicly. "Russia working together with North Korea, Iran and China is not only threatening Europe, it's threatening peace and security, yes, here in Europe, but also in the Indo-Pacific and in North America," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters ahead of consultations with French President Emmanuel Macron. (Reuters, November 12, 2024)

...AS CRACKS APPEAR IN RUSSO-IRANIAN COOPERATION
The strategic bonds between Moscow and Tehran are not without their tensions, however. In particular, the New York Times reports, Russia and Iran have divergent visions for the South Caucasus, where Armenia has emerged as a significant flashpoint. "Russia is racing to contain Iran's expanding influence in Armenia, a former Soviet republic at a crossroads of trade routes that Moscow needs to replace Western imports," the paper reports. For its part, Armenia has increasingly distanced itself from Moscow in favor of ties to Iran - setting up a potential rivalry over the future disposition of the majority-Christian nation. (New York Times, November 12, 2024)

IS RUSSIA'S OPPOSITION ORGANIZING?
Three of Russia's most prominent exiled opposition figures - Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny, as well as former political prisoners Ilya Yashin and Vladimir Kara-Murza – jointly organized an anti-war march in Berlin on November 17th. The rally, demanding a Russian troop withdrawal from Ukraine, drew hundreds of people in the German capital and showcased signs calling for "victory in Ukraine," "Putin's downfall" and "freedom for Russia." (Deutsche Welle, November 17, 2024)

[EDITORS’ NOTE: The Berlin rally is significant not for its turnout, which was modest, but by what it might augur in terms of Russia's political opposition. Up until now, the assorted opponents of the Kremlin have operated largely separately and apart from one another - a state of affairs that has rebounded to the benefit of the Kremlin. However, the recent cooperation between Navalnaya, Yashin and Kara-Murza, should it continue, could mark the beginning of a new, more organized phase of political opposition to Russian president Vladimir Putin.]

MOSCOW MESSES WITH BALTIC COMMUNICATIONS
Russia is believed to be behind the recent sabotage of two critical Baltic undersea fiber-optic cables connecting Sweden to Lithuania and Finland to Germany. The separate incidents are part of what many view as Moscow's hybrid warfare strategy against NATO countries. Both cables were damaged in a small area of Swedish waters, and investigations have concluded that the damage was intentional, not natural. "Nobody believes that these cables were accidentally cut off," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has said. "Therefore we must conclude — without yet knowing specifically who was behind it — that this is a hybrid operation." (Wall Street Journal, November 20, 2024)

RUSSIA ON ISRAEL'S DOORSTEP
According to Syria's official SANA news agency, Russia has been bolstering its presence in the south of the country, on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. The beefed-up presence is said to include two new military positions, supplementing the seven already-existing bases that Russia has maintained in the country for years. Russian forces "have not withdrawn from any position in the region but have increased their presence along various positions" in recent years, a top Russian military official has confirmed. (Arutz Sheva, November 19, 2024)