Russia Policy Monitor No. 2656

RUSSIAN HACKERS TARGET EUROPE...
Russian-linked hacking group Sandworm, which has been identified as affiliated with Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, is intensifying cyberattacks on Europe's energy infrastructure. The stepped-up targeting is raising concerns in European capitals about potential disruptions as winter approaches. According to Google's threat intelligence experts, Sandworm - which targeted Ukraine's power grid back in 2015 and again in 2023 - is now focusing its efforts on disrupting energy systems across Europe.

The escalation represents part of a larger pattern. It comes amid increased hybrid warfare activities by Kremlin-linked entities, including the sabotage of undersea telecom cables. Experts have warned that these cyberattacks, often blending destructive malware with information theft, aim to disrupt critical sectors and further destabilize the region amid Russia's ongoing war on Ukraine. (Politico, November 22, 2024)

...AND JAPAN
Europe isn't the only target of Russian cyber warfare, however. TechRadar reports that pro-Russian hackers "have launched a series of coordinated DDoS attacks against Japanese organizations following Japan's recent moves to strengthen its military alliance with the United States." DDOS, or "distributed denial of service," attacks involve flooding networks with so much internet traffic that they disrupt operations and can crash websites. The practice is "a go-to method for cybercriminals and hacktivist groups," the trade website notes. The DDOS attacks, which commenced in October 2024, have targeted a broad set of political and economic targets in the island nation. (TechRadar, December 1, 2024)

RUSSIA RETURNS THE FAVOR
Over the past several weeks, the regime of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un has become an active participant in the Ukraine war, providing Russia with thousands of troops that the Kremlin has used to augment its military ranks. Now, Moscow is returning the favor, and beefing up the DPRK's military capabilities. The Kremlin has provided North Korea with advanced air defense missiles, military equipment, and satellite technology, South Korea's national security adviser, Shin Won-sik, has divulged.

The deepening cooperation builds on an already-extensive strategic partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang. In recent years, Russia has assisted North Korea in enhancing its ballistic missile and reconnaissance programs, including its space-based intelligence systems, in moves that have raised worries in both Washington and Seoul. This, however, may be a portent of still more to come. "Other forms of Russian payback could include oil shipments, satellite technology transfers and the like," says Asia analyst Sean King at Park Strategies. "I fear Moscow-Pyongyang relations sadly have many unfortunate depths left to plumb." (Newsweek, November 22, 2024)

AN OFFENSIVE AGAINST UKRAINIAN ENERGY
Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine's power grid, focusing on substations critical to the operation of the country's nuclear power plants. The strikes, documented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), have disrupted power transmission from three active nuclear power plants and forced output reductions. Observers have warned that these attacks risk nuclear safety by threatening the plants' ability to cool reactors, raising fears of potential nuclear disasters. Moreover, damage to the grid could leave nuclear plants without off-site power for safety systems, something that could lead to catastrophic outcomes.

In response, Ukraine has partnered with the IAEA to monitor substations, documenting significant damage and reduced grid reliability. While Ukraine hopes IAEA inspections could deter further attacks, limited monitoring has taken place so far. The situation has prompted intermittent power shutdowns across the country, with some regions left without electricity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has condemned the escalation and called for global attention to the growing threat to nuclear safety. (New York Times, November 29, 2024)