Russia Policy Monitor No. 2658

ASSAD GETS ASYLUM IN MOSCOW...
The biggest event of recent days in the Middle East has been the sudden collapse of the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in the face of a renewed offensive by assorted jihadist groups. Over the span of just a few days, rebel advances into Homs, Aleppo and other cities put the Assad regime on the back foot, ultimately forcing Assad to flee the country. Syria's brutal ruler has now found safe haven on the territory of a dependable ally: Vladimir Putin's Russia. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed that Putin personally authorized a grant of asylum to Assad and his family. "Such decisions can't be taken without the head of state. It was his decision," Peskov has told reporters. (The Moscow Times, December 9, 2024)

...AS MOSCOW SCRAMBLES TO PRESERVE ITS SYRIAN PRESENCE
Assad's ouster, meanwhile, has put the Kremlin on the horns of a serious strategic dilemma. Russia's decision back in 2015 to intervene in the Syrian civil war in support of the Assad regime laid the groundwork for an expanded regional presence in the Middle East, including multiple military bases on Syrian soil and deepening involvement in the regional arms trade. Now that Assad's regime has fallen, Moscow is at risk of losing its regional foothold. That's why Putin's government has launched a quiet dialogue with Syria's suddenly victorious rebels – most prominently, jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which previously was affiliated with al-Qaeda – in hopes of striking a new modus vivendi.

Those talks seem to be bearing fruit. "Russia is reportedly close to securing a deal with the new Syrian leadership that would secure the future of its military bases in the country," London's Telegraph newspaper reports. The quiet understanding the Kremlin appears to have struck with HTS is said to include continued Russian control of the airbase in Hmeimim, although Moscow appears to have reduced its forces at the facility in the meantime. (Telegraph, December 12, 2024)

PRISONERS TO THE (WAR) FRONT
As a result of its ongoing war on Ukraine, the Kremlin has dipped into the country's prison population – offering pardons and incentives for convicted criminals to sign contracts with the Russian military. That effort, in turn, is having a material effect on the country's penal system. As Meduza reports, plans for a "super-prison" that was originally supposed to be built near Ulan-Ude in Siberia have been abandoned due to a lack of both funding and inhabitants. The news, announced by Buryatia governor Alexey Tsydenov, reflects how Russia's war effort is distorting regional political plans and infrastructure in unexpected ways. "This project has been abandoned due to the lack of funding," Tsydonov confirmed to reporters. "Besides, for obvious reasons, the prisons are now mostly empty. The urgency of construction has diminished." (Meduza, December 9, 2024)

NATO MOBILIZES VERSUS RUSSIA
The Atlantic Alliance is expanding its efforts to counter Russia's "hybrid war" tactics. According to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the bloc has mapped out "proactive measures" designed to better address the full spectrum of threats that Russia now poses to the international community. "Allies are working very hard to make sure when it comes to sabotage, cyber-attacks, energy blackmail, that we take all the measures necessary to counter that," Rutte has said. The range of measures being explored by the Alliance, he noted, include "enhanced intelligence exchange, more exercises, better protection of critical infrastructure, improved cyber defence, and tougher action against Russia's shadow fleet of oil exporting ships." (Agence France-Presse, December 4, 2024)

NAZI SENTIMENT MAKES A COMEBACK
Political agitation by far right factions is an increasingly frequent occurrence in Russia, as neo-Nazi activists become more and more active. According to watchdog groups, there are now roughly 100 incidents of violence by Nazi sympathizers against migrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus monthly, with many of them documented on video. Observers are raising the alarm over the "revival of the Nazi skinhead subculture" in Russian society, a phenomenon that is being amplified against the backdrop of the Ukraine war by increasingly absolutist and militaristic state propaganda. (Kavkaz Realii, December 4, 2024)

KADYROV'S CLOUT GROWS
As Russia's war on Ukraine drags on, Ramzan Kadyrov, the pro-Kremlin strongman of Chechnya, is benefiting handsomely. According to Proekt, a Russian opposition investigative outlet, the number of military units under Kadyrov's control have more than doubled since the start of the conflict in February 2022. Kadyrov now controls seventeen detachments of military and paramilitary units, with most – though not all – under the direction of Russia's National Guard. Kadyrov's growing power, in turn, is a reflection of his increasingly decisive role in bolstering the ranks of the Russian military. Back in August, Chechnya's leader boasted that he had personally deployed nearly 50,000 fighters to the Ukrainian front. Notably, however, that figure represents a fraction of the men that Kadyrov maintains under his control – and the most loyal are said to remain in the North Caucasus republic, where they are helping to maintain order and shore up the regional leader's power. (The Moscow Times, December 12, 2024)