SEEKING A POST-ASSAD MODUS VIVENDI
In early December, a renewed offensive by Syrian opposition forces led to the rapid overthrow of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. For Moscow, which has served for years as a major military ally of the Syrian government, Assad's ouster represents a potentially massive strategic setback, imperiling its current military foothold in the country. Russian officials, however, are scrambling to adapt. According to Bloomberg, the Russian government has already initiated contacts with Syria's new leadership, which is dominated by Sunni jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Their objective? To strike a new arrangement that would enable Russia to maintain its current naval presence in the port city of Tartus, and its aerial contingent at the Hmeimim base in the country's northwest. (Bloomberg, December 12, 2024)
SUBVERTING UKRAINE FROM THE INSIDE
Even as its military campaign against Ukraine continues, the Kremlin is finding novel ways to erode its western neighbor's sovereignty. According to The Record, Ukraine's state intelligence service, the SBU, has uncovered an effort by Russia's security services to destabilize the country by recruiting teenagers for vandalism and criminal activities. Recently, in Kharkiv, state law enforcement officials apprehended two separate groups of teens with connections to the FSB, Russia's foreign intelligence service. The teenagers "were allegedly tasked with carrying out espionage, directing missile strikes, and committing arson on behalf of Russian operatives."
The way by which the teens were recruited was ingenious, and insidious. "Under the guise of 'quest game' rules devised by the FSB — where players complete tasks as part of a game — the minors were given geolocation coordinates and were instructed to travel to those locations, take photographs and videos of targets, and provide brief descriptions of the areas to Russian spies via anonymous messaging apps," the opposition news website reports Ukrainian officials as disclosing. (The Record, December 13, 2024)
ANOTHER USE FOR RUSSIA'S SHADOW FLEET
Since the start of its war on Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has worked to adapt to the extensive economic sanctions levied by the U.S. and Europe. One way in which it has done so is through the creation of a "shadow fleet" of hundreds of irregularly flagged vessels, without adequate insurance and controlled by cut-out companies. This "shadow fleet' has permitted Moscow to ship oil to foreign customers in circumvention of the $60-per-barrel price cap imposed by Western governments in December of 2022.
But these tankers could be used for another purpose as well: strategic sealift. "Strategic sealift is one of those indispensable military activities that takes place away from the public eye: Commercial vessels transporting gear needed by armies, from tanks to fuel," writes the Atlantic Council's Elizabeth Braw in Politico. "And if Russia or its friends decided to launch a new military conflict, they could now tap into the shadow fleet."
This capability matters, moreover, because it would place the United States at a distinct disadvantage. "America's sealift capabilities are in dire straits," Braw notes. "Today, 17 of the 44 roll-on/roll-off ships operated by the U.S. Transportation Command, which includes the Maritime Sealift Command, are 50 years or older. The Maritime Administration, meanwhile, currently has 92 ships — down from 2,277 in the 1950s." That state of affairs creates a mismatch of capabilities between Moscow and Washington in the event of a future conflict, especially since the United States is now facing the very real possibility of some sort of confrontation with China as well, "which has 5,997 merchant vessels under its flag and 842 under the flag of Hong Kong." (Politico, December 16, 2024)
MORE TYRANNY OF THE LAW
A new series of measures by the Kremlin have expanded the Russian government's ability to target anti-government speech and fundraising. According to Meduza, recently adopted amendments to 48 separate federal laws to draw an equivalence between "funding extremist activities" and "financing terrorism." The implications are potentially huge. As Meduza notes, the legislative changes provide Russian authorities with the power to add people to lists of "terrorists and extremists" for any offense under a broader, expanded definition of "extremism" - one that now extends to a freezing of finances for anyone subjectively determined by the Prosecutor General's Office to be engaged in anti-government activities.
The result is something resembling "civil death," in which "bank accounts registered to people designated as 'terrorists and extremists' (and, in practice, even to their relatives) are blocked, and monthly withdrawals are strictly capped at 10,000 rubles ($95) for personal needs. This limit also applies to each dependent in the individual's family." (Meduza, December 13, 2024)
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