PERSECUTING NAVALNY, CONTINUED
Before his death last year in an Arctic penal colony, Alexei Navalny had become public enemy no. 1 for the Kremlin, with his high-profile anti-corruption work a constant worry for the government of President Vladimir Putin. Navalny's February 2024 death, ostensibly as a result of a blood clot, removed a major anti-establishment figure from the political scene, and in his absence the Russian government is ramping up its persecution of the activist's ideological fellow-travelers. In mid-December, Russian prosecutors announced plans to seek jail terms for Navalny's three lawyers, Vadim Kobzev, Igor Sergunin and Alexei Liptser. The trio is accused of taking part in an "extremist organization" - namely, Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation, which was blacklisted by the Kremlin back in 2021. Each now faces up to six years in prison.
The news has drawn outrage from Russian opposition forces. "They have not committed any crimes," Yulia Navalnaya, Alexei's widow, has maintained. "They are in prison for simply doing their job, which any lawyer should do with any prisoner: preparing a defence strategy, discussing issues of detention in prison, writing complaints, filing lawsuits." (Reuters, December 17, 2024)
A SHAKEUP IN THE RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE RANKS
For nearly three years, Russia's offensive against Ukraine has been plagued by intelligence failures and miscalculations, a state of affairs that has increasingly riled Kremlin elites and Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. But the straw that may have broken the camel's back was the assassination last month of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of the country's nuclear, biological and chemical protection forces, at the hands of Ukraine's security service, the SBU. In the wake of the bombing that killed Kirillov, the head of the FSB's counterintelligence department, Colonel General Nikolai Yuryev, has been removed from his post.
Although officially Yuryev tendered his resignation in the wake of Kirillov's death, rumors are swirling that he was fired - signalling a significant political rupture within the Russian government. In the past, Putin himself has stressed the importance of the service's counter-intelligence capabilities. "Your actions in the troops, especially in units participating in a special military operation, must be clear and systematic," the president is reported to have said previously. "In general, it is necessary to promptly stop the work of foreign intelligence agencies, actively combat those who organize sabotage and terrorist attacks, and identify spies and traitors." (Newsweek, December 20, 2024)
MOSCOW LOOKS TO AFRICA
The December collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria in the face of renewed opposition pressure has created a new strategic challenge for the Kremlin. In its aftermath, Russia is reconfiguring its regional presence in the Middle East - and looking westward. Radio Free Europe, citing satellite imagery, reports that “Russia is reducing its military footprint in Syria and shifting some of its assets from the Middle Eastern country to Africa." In particular, Russia is reportedly moving some military assets to bases in both Libya and Mali. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, December 21, 2024)
FINLAND FIGHTS BACK
European governments are increasingly mobilizing to counter Russia's hybrid war tactics. In late December, the Nordic nation of Finland seized the Eagle S, a Cook Islands-flagged vessel carrying Russian oil to foreign markets. The seizure was carried out in response to the severing of the Estlink 2 undersea cable in what the European Commission has termed "the latest in a series of suspected attacks on critical infrastructure." The Eagle S, which is part of the "shadow fleet" used by Russia to carry out its oil trade despite western sanctions, is suspected of having committed the sabotage, which disrupted electricity flows between Estonia and Finland. (The Hill, December 26, 2024)
HOMEGROWN RESISTANCE TO ACADEMIC PROPAGANDA
Since February of 2022, in tandem with its military offensive against Ukraine, Russia's government has expanded indoctrination in the country's educational system through measures such as the promotion of "patriotic" curricula, the encouragement of reporting on so-called disloyalty, and sundry other measures. Now, Russian parents are beginning to fight back. "Tens of thousands of Russian parents are pulling their children out of public schools because of overcrowding, the dumbing down of the curriculum and the brainwashing about the war and the Putin regime children are now subject to," writes Russia expert Paul Goble in his Window on Eurasia blog, citing a new study by the online magazine Bumaga. (Window on Eurasia, December 11, 2024)
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