Russia Policy Monitor No. 2673

PUTIN LOOKS FOR REINFORCEMENTS
Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that Ukraine be placed under "temporary administration" as part of any peace settlement, and argued in favor of broadening the current talks to involve an array of foreign countries, including strategic allies like North Korea and China. Russia's president floated the idea of an internationalized cohort to administer the post-war settlement in Ukraine during a recent visit to Murmansk. "This is not only the United States but also the People's Republic of China, India, Brazil, South Africa, all BRICS countries," Putin said. "And many others, for example, including the Democratic People's Republic of Korea."

The DPRK, meanwhile, is deepening its support for Russia's war of choice. Pyongyang has already dispatched some 12,000 troops to bolster the Russian war effort, a third of whom are estimated to have perished as a result. Now, North Korea has reportedly sent "some 3,000 or more" additional soldiers as part of its ongoing cooperation with Moscow, as well as providing "a considerable amount of short-range ballistic missiles and around 220 pieces of 170 millimeter self-propelled howitzers and 240 mm rocket launchers,” South Korean officials say. (Radio Free Asia, March 28, 2025)

MILITARY RECRUITMENT SURGES...
Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that he is ready for peace with Ukraine - albeit not on Ukraine's terms, and with conditions that clearly favor the Kremlin. This ostensible willingness has been cited repeatedly by U.S. officials as the Trump administration has pushed for some sort of deal to end the now-three-year-old war. But the Russian president's orders to the country's regional governments appear to suggest another objective altogether. According to a new report from RFE/RL's Sibir Realii service, Russia's regional governments are intensifying their efforts to recruit contract soldiers for the country's war on Ukraine. Indeed, while recruitment for the conflict has traditionally lagged, multiple Russian regions are now said to be exceeding monthly quotas for military contracts signed.

The reasons appear to have everything to do with compensation. Authorities in places like Irkutsk have reportedly more than doubled the one-time signing bonus for new contract soldiers. In Irkutsk, for instance, the previous signing bonus of 400,000 rubles ($4,800) has been raised to 1 million rubles ($12,000), as the local government seeks to bolster federal needs for new fighting forces. (Sibir Realii, April 11, 2025)

...AS THE KREMLIN ANTICIPATES THE DAY AFTER
Authorities in Moscow, meanwhile, are rapidly planning for taking advantage of a peace settlement, if one does indeed materialize. Meduza, citing RBC, reports that the Russian government "is developing criteria under which foreign companies that exited the country after the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine could be allowed to return." These "baseline" requirements are said to allow companies that continued paying employee salaries prior to its exit from the Russian market, aren't designated "foreign agents" by the Kremlin, and have no outstanding debts, to be considered by a special commission to resume doing business in Russia, if they apply to do so. Additionally, Meduza reports, "conditions under discussion include guarantees of a certain level of localization within a set timeframe; technology transfers; the establishment of research and development centers in Russia; investment benchmarks for research and development; and the creation of joint ventures with either the current Russian owners of the company's former local business or with strategically important Russian enterprises." (Meduza, April 10, 2025)

EUROPE NEEDS BEEFED UP NAVAL CAPABILITIES TO COUNTER RUSSIA, CHINA
As relations between the United States and Europe deteriorate, officials on the continent are warning that their governments need to do more to counter the threats posed by Russia and China – in particular, the "gray zone" warfare that is now favored by both Moscow and Beijing. In recent remarks to the Navy League's Sea-Air-Space symposium, Rear Adm. Harold Liebregs, the deputy commander of the Royal Netherlands Navy, noted that "Europe needs to step up... needs to do more" in terms of self-defense capabilities. Of particular worry for European military planners are the threats that Russia and China pose to undersea data cables that provide connectivity to the European continent. Another concern is beefing up naval presence to more comprehensively respond to Russia's "shadow fleet" of tankers, via which the Kremlin continues to carry out illicit oil trade. (USNI News, April 8, 2025)