EXPANDED TIES WITH THE EMIRATES
Amid its ongoing war on Ukraine, the Kremlin is making new connections in the Middle East. Last month, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan paid an official visit to Moscow, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other officials to discuss expanding cooperation between Russia and the Emirates on space, energy and trade. The two-day visit culminated in a formal agreement to increase bilateral economic cooperation between the two countries on financial technology, health care and other sectors. in areas from financial technology to healthcare. The two countries also set the objective of doubling bilateral trade, which currently stands at some $11.5 billion annually. (The National, August 8, 2025)
ASSESSING RUSSIA'S HYBRID WAR ON THE WEST
Since 2023, Russia has quadrupled its sabotage efforts across Europe, according to a new report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The study, entitled "The Scale of Russia's Sabotage Operations Against Europe's Critical Infrastructure," details how Moscow is targeting critical infrastructure nodes across the continent using methods such as arson, hacking. GPS disruption and cable damage. The linkage with Moscow's current war on Kyiv is clear; a majority of targets are either within Ukraine itself or connected to the West's support of the Ukrainian war effort or its civilian industries.
This campaign is being carried out by various means. Since most Russian intelligence agents were expelled from Europe even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has pivoted to recruiting unwitting operatives to do its bidding through social media platforms like Telegram. And much more might be to come. "Some NATO member states have assessed Russia's unconventional war to be part of its long-term preparations for a potential military confrontation with NATO," the report divulges.
Europe, meanwhile, has struggled with its response to the Kremlin campaign. A number of steps have indeed been taken – such as Poland and the Baltic states' withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention prohibiting land mines earlier this year, and Finland's subsequent decision to do the same. One the whole, however, "Europe's reactive posture has failed to inflict sufficient penalties" to force a change in the Kremlin's strategic calculus, the report charges. (IISS, August 2025; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, August 20, 2025)
EAVESDROPPING ON NATO
Russia is building a massive new signals intelligence (SIGINT) facility in the Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad. Satellite imagery indicates that the facility could, when completed, become one of the most powerful SIGINT interception facilities in Europe. Located less than 100 kilometers from Poland and Lithuania in Chernyakhovsk, it will – once operational – allow Russia to intercept both military and civilian communications across Poland, Lithuania, and Germany. And, should a conflict with Europe erupt, experts have expressed concern that the installation would enhance Russia's ability to disrupt NATO’s command and control. (TVP World, August, 22, 2025)
RUSSIA'S OWN "GOLDEN DOME"
"Colossal threats" leave Russia no choice but to upgrade its nuclear deterrent, Russia’s nuclear chief has said. According to ROSATOM head Alexei Likhachev, Russia needs to improve its "nuclear shield" in light of mounting threats to the country's sovereignty. The precise updates to Russia's nuclear arsenal haven't yet been specified, but the move appears to be a reaction to President Trump's plans for a "Golden Dome" missile defense architecture to protect the U.S. homeland. Notably, however, while Trump's plans are strictly defensive in nature, Russia sees its nuclear shield as "also a sword." Moreover, Russia's nuclear development will soon be unconstrained by any meaningful international mechanisms, as the last bilateral arms control agreement – the 2010 New Start Treaty – expires in February 2026. (Reuters, August 21, 2025)
THE WOES OF RUSSIA'S WAR ECONOMY
Officials in Moscow may still be putting on a brave face about their country's economic resilience in the face of Western pressure. But the real state of affairs is considerably more dire. Russia faces "unavoidable" tax hikes next year, an anonymous government source has told Meduza. Without increased taxes, "we simply won't be able to make ends meet, even with a reduction in defense spending. Oil and gas revenues are falling and the economy cannot fully compensate for this," the source said.
Russia's economic situation, moreover, is being made worse by the country's current focus on ramped up defense spending. According to Meduza's source, military spending will not be reduced in 2026 and a decrease in 2027 would only be a possibility if the war ends. That is, "There will be no return to the level that existed before the 'special military operation.'" Sergey Aleksashenko, former deputy chairman of Russia's Central Bank, who is now a senior fellow at the NEST Centre in London, also now expects a tax increase, as well as other measures – such as the indexing of pensions and benefits below the inflation rate – as the Kremlin seeks to cut spending in areas other than its war economy. (Meduza, August 21, 2025)
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