Russia Policy Monitor No. 2694

RUSSIA BANKS ON ITS INDIAN OIL TRADE
Even after U.S. President Trump slapped an additional 25 percent tariff on India for purchasing Russian oil, Russia expects to continue selling to New Delhi. Roman Babushkin, the charge d'affaires at the Russian embassy in India, predicted that India would continue the "same level of oil import," believing that Moscow and New Delhi could overcome the tariffs in accordance with their "national interests." He called for trilateral talks between India, Russia and China to serve Russia's goals of establishing a "greater Eurasian partnership."

The U.S. instituted the secondary tariff after trade talks with New Delhi broke down earlier this summer over a range of issues, chief among them India's ongoing purchases of Russian oil. Those imports have soared over the past three-and-a-half years – from just 0.2 percent of total Indian imports before the Ukraine war to 35 percent now. Total U.S. tariffs on India now stand at 50 percent. That represents something of an opening for Moscow, which offers New Delhi a 5-7 percent discount on oil and is additionally interested in expanding nuclear energy cooperation with the South Asian state. (Reuters, August 20, 2025)

RUSSIA TESTS "TRADITIONAL VALUES"
Moscow's Higher School of Economics is launching a new 10-million-ruble project to measure the attitudes of Russian students toward "traditional spiritual and moral values." Funded by Russia's Sports Ministry, the project aims to identify "risks of destructive or illegal behavior based on an analysis of value orientations," and ultimately hopes to strengthen "the spiritual and moral foundation of society." It will first be implemented at sports universities, before being "scaled up" to be disseminated across the higher education system. The project will reportedly include creating definitions and examples of traditional values in line with President Putin's 2022 decree on "preserving and strengthening traditional values," as well as assessing mechanisms available at sports universities to strengthen them and creating ideas for information campaigns. The project is set to be completed by November 22nd of this year. (Meduza, August 19, 2025)

RUSSIA IMPORTS IRANIAN WEAPONS
An investigation by Meduza and the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS) has uncovered, using satellite imagery, shipping logs, and maritime tracking data, how Iran has been supplying Russia with ammunition. Shipping records indicate that Iran shipped over 4,600 tons of ammunition to Russia last November alone. Ammunition traveled across the Caspian Sea on ships owned by a company linked to sanctioned Russian businessman Dzhamaldin Pashaev and arrived at Port Olya in Russia's Astrakhan region, before being transferred by rail to military depots near the frontlines. Analysts believe the shipments include mortar rounds, artillery shells, and Iranian Fatah-360 short-range ballistic missiles. The missile transfers were reportedly formalized in a contract signed in December 2023 after then–Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu visited Tehran. Both countries deny this aspect of cooperation, however, and evidence of the use of Fatah missiles on the Ukrainian battlefield has yet to be corroborated.

Nevertheless, Iran's weapons have become an important part of Russia's wartime supply. The total volume of shipments of "explosive materials" from Iran and North Korea has increased from 150,000 tons in 2023 to 260,000 tons in 2024. Materials traveling through Port Olya alone amount to 13,000 tons annually. However, their exact amounts are hard to pin down due to the variety of different mortars, shells and rockets transferred from Iran to Russia. In response, Ukraine has launched drone strikes on Port Olya. However, arms transfers nevertheless persist, playing a crucial role in Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. (Meduza, August 19, 2025)

REINFORCEMENTS FROM CENTRAL ASIA
Throughout its war on Ukraine, Russia has supplemented its armed forces through infusions of manpower from abroad. Some have come from allied nations, like North Korea. Others, however, have come from Central Asian states such as Kazakhstan – which have contributed thousands of men to the Kremlin's fight as a result of Russia's strong-arm tactics and bribery. The reason is logical. As RFE/RL notes, "Russia hosts millions for migrant workers from the former Soviet region" – a state of affairs that provides a ready pool of recruits, which Russia has enlisted through "various methods" ranging from torture to financial inducements.

The precise number of Central Asians enlisted in this fashion is not known. However, Ukraine's state-run "I Want To Live" project, which tracks foreign participation in Russia's full-scale invasion, tabulated the names of more than 2,000 Uzbek nationals and nearly 1,000 Tajiks who joined the fight, as of early 2025. In particular, the project has noted, Kyrgyz nationals have become a focus for Kremlin recruitment, and their number is now rising dramatically. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, August 21, 2025)