Russia Policy Monitor No. 2701

Related Categories: Intelligence and Counterintelligence; International Economics and Trade; Public Diplomacy and Information Operations; Warfare; Europe; Germany; Russia; Ukraine

RISING GOLD PRICES GREASE RUSSIA'S WAR MACHINE
As Western sanctions attempt to constrain Russia's war economy and Ukraine targets Russian oil refineries in a bid to cripple its energy revenues, gold has emerged as a crucial lifeline for the Kremlin. Global economic uncertainty has driven investors toward safe-haven assets, sending gold prices soaring by 50% in 2025, shattering all previous records. The Kremlin has been investing in gold for nearly twenty years, with bullion now making up one-third of Russia's total reserves. Unlike other assets, gold retains its value amid sanctions, becoming even more lucrative as prices rise and as Russia sells bullion on international markets. Russia is now the world's second largest exporter of gold, which remains in demand despite international sanctions pressure, with China alone importing $1 billion in precious metals from Russia in the first six months of 2025.

The implications are significant. As long as the demand for gold continues to grow, Russia will maintain a substantial reserve of wealth that it can draw upon to continue to finance its costly war in Ukraine. (Meduza, October 16, 2025)

EUROPE'S NEW PLAN FOR DEFENSE READINESS
European anxiety about growing Russian aggression beyond Ukraine have produced the European Commission's new "Defense Readiness Roadmap 2030," aimed at deterring future Russian strategic encroachment. The plan outlines massive investments in four key projects: a defensive drone "wall," an eastern flank watch system, and both air and space "shields." Officials note that more initiatives are included in the project and deeper integration is expected. Over the next five years, EU member states will focus on military mobility and technological development to strengthen collective security on the continent. European leaders have highlighted the plan's goal of peace through strength, preventing Russian attacks by increasing defensive capabilities. (TVP World, October 16, 2025)

HOW MOSCOW TRIED TO SUBVERT MOLDOVA...
Ahead of Moldova's September 28th parliamentary elections, concerns abounded that Russian interference and hybrid tactics would succeed in undermining the country's pro-European orientation. Those concerns, as it turned out, were well-founded. Although the pro-Russian coalition was ultimately defeated at the polls, evidence continues to emerge that Moscow actively attempted to subvert the direction of the political process. Most recently, authorities in nearby Serbia have confirmed that three Russian nationals were present at a training camp near the Serbian-Bosnian border, where 170 Moldovans and Romanians were trained in sabotage and protest tactics, with the objective of disrupting the late September vote. Moscow has denied responsibility, but the information lends further credence to allegations of Kremlin-backed election meddling. (TVP World, October 16, 2025)

...AND IS TARGETING GERMANY WITH HYBRID TACTICS
Moldova, moreover, is not alone. German authorities have reported a sharp increase in Russian espionage and hybrid operations over the past year in a wave of destabilizing activity they say is reminiscent of Cold War tactics. For instance, Russian agents have been entering Germany through third nations and establishing ties with resettled Russians or anyone maintaining "personal or business" relations with Russia. Additionally, the German Navy has been targeted by sabotage operations, such as tampering with on-board water systems, propulsion units, and cable systems. Authorities are also concerned about information warfare efforts aimed at sowing disunity in German society. Analysts believe the Russians are targeting Germany due to its "role as a key NATO logistics hub" and its staunch support for Ukraine. (United24 Media, July 21, 2025)

A RUSSIAN MILITARY UPGRADE
The Kremlin's ongoing aggression against Ukraine has required a massive mobilization of personnel and resources over the past three-and-a-half years. In the process, it has exposed glaring inefficiencies in Russian military procurement and construction, as well as in the distribution of benefits for soldiers and their dependents. In response, Russia's Defense Ministry has initiated a significant internal reform process aimed at digitizing military records and relieving commanders of "clerical burdens." To facilitate the effort transition, a Department of Efficiency Improvement has been created within the Defense Ministry. It will oversee such steps as the phasing out of paper orders in favor of digital records, as well as digitizing the benefits allocation process to reduce waiting times for families of deceased or injured servicemen. Significantly, this reform is part of a broader Kremlin initiative to digitize governance as a means of asserting tighter control over the country's sprawling state bureaucracy. (The Moscow Times, October 22, 2025)