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VENEZUELA'S MADURO SEEKS SUPPORT... IN MOSCOW, BEIJING AND TEHRAN
In response to recent U.S. strikes against Venezuelan vessels, the country's president, Nicolas Maduro, has reportedly reached out to Russia, China, and Iran for support – and those countries are responding. Alexei Zhuravlyov, the deputy chairman of the State Duma's defense committee, has told Russian media outlets that there are no international commitments that constrain Russia from sharing its Orenshik or Kalibr ballistic missiles with Venezuela, which already receives a range of Russian weapons. In fact, in recent years, the two countries have actively sought to build a relationship based on countering U.S. influence in Latin America through economic and military cooperation. Though not confirmed, this new phase of cooperation represents a potential escalation of the Kremlin's destabilizing activities in the Western Hemisphere. (Newsweek, November 4, 2025)
WANING ENTHUSIASM FOR THE UKRAINE WAR
As the Kremlin's campaign against Kyiv drags on, support for Russian President Vladimir Putin's war of choice is waning markedly. A new poll by VTsIOM, carried out for the Kremlin, found that 56 percent of Russians are now "very tired" of the war, while another 27 percent of respondents said they were at least partially in agreement with the assessment. Reporting on the results in his Window on Eurasia blog, Paul Goble reports on the phenomenon, and notes that while "the share of Russians who are tired of the war has risen so high is important... perhaps even more important is the fact that the Kremlin feels the need to have such surveys conducted but not published and appears to have been doing so for at least the last two years, an indication that some around Putin are worried about such a trend given their claims about popular support for Putin's war." (Window on Eurasia, October 30, 2025)
[EDITORS' NOTE: The results are particularly significant given the effect of Russia's increasingly authoritarian political climate on pollsters and respondents alike, which requires the results of public opinion surveys to be viewed with some caution. It is therefore reasonable to conclude that the results reported by VTsIOM likely represent an undercounting of the share of Russia's populace that has grown disenchanted with the conflict.]
RUSSIA GREEN LIGHTS NUCLEAR TESTS
For the first time since the Soviet era, Russia has announced plans to resume full-scale nuclear weapons testing. President Putin has ordered the Russian Foreign Ministry to assess U.S. nuclear modernization and testing plans and ensure that Russia maintains parity. The decision comes after assertions by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov that Washington is withdrawing from arms control commitments in order to upgrade its strategic arsenal, and follows remarks by President Trump about the need for the U.S. to restart nuclear testing. (Meduza, November 5, 2025)
POLAND PLANS TO TRAIN CIVILIANS
Nearly four years into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Poland is increasingly concerned about potential spillover from the conflict – and preparing for possible broader Russian aggression. Warsaw has significantly increased its military spending in recent months, becoming NATO's third-largest military with 216,000 personnel under arms and growing. But the country is also investing in citizen readiness; the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk is aiming to expand civilian defense readiness, and hopes to train 100,000 civilians this year and a total of 400,000 by the end of 2026. To this end, the Polish government has launched the "Always Prepared" program, offering courses in security, cyber hygiene, first aid, and survival to all Polish citizens, from primary students to retirees. (Deutsche Welle, November 6, 2025)
A GROWING DOMESTIC THREAT
Over the past three-plus years of war, Russia has grappled with a resilient Ukrainian military and determined defense on the front lines. But it has increasingly also faced a domestic challenge from militant domestic groups as well. One such partisan group, Freedom of Russia, has reportedly successfully carried out a wave of sabotage operations across Russia, targeting transportation systems used to supply the military in Ukraine. The group has taken credit for the attacks, claiming the destruction of train control systems as well. Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, HUR, has publicized the attacks, and assessed that they have weakened Russia's ability to supply its fighting forces.
The sabotage attacks reportedly took place in Arkhangelskoye in the Moscow region; in Bezenchuk, Kinel-Cherkasy, Syzran, and Tolyatti in the Samara region; in Bogdanovich, Nizhny Tagil, Pervouralsk, and Bilimbay in the Sverdlovsk region; in Novokuznetsk in the Kemerovo region); in Syktyvkar in the Komi Republic); in Samara in the Samara Oblast; and in Oryal in the Oryal Oblast. The group also targeted towns in parts of Ukraine now occupied by Russia, such as Novooleksiivka in the Kherson region and Amvrosiivka in the Donetsk region. (Kyiv Post, November 6, 2025)
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