Africa Political Monitor No. 60

NIGERIA GRAPPLES WITH SEPARATIST PROTESTS…
Nigerian police fired teargas at demonstrators demanding the release of Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the banned Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) movement. Kanu is accused of leading a separatist campaign in Nigeria’s southeast, a region with longstanding secessionist tensions. On October 20th, police in Abuja used teargas, water cannons, and armored vehicles to disperse protesters. Supporters say his detention since 2021 is politically motivated and want terrorism charges dropped. Kanu has pleaded not guilty to seven counts, each carrying a life sentence. The unrest highlights persistent separatist sentiment in the country’s southeast, and risks further straining Nigeria’s already fragile security landscape. (Reuters, October 21, 2025)

…AS TRUMP THREATENS MILITARY ACTION
Meanwhile, President Trump has ordered the U.S. military to prepare for military action against jihadist groups in Nigeria, accusing the Nigerian government of failing to protect the country’s Christian population. In response, President Trump wrote in a November 1st social media post that he might deploy the military into Nigeria or carry out airstrikes unless the Nigerian government intervened. The threat sparked alarm across Nigeria, with many urging stronger action against Islamist groups to avoid foreign intervention. U.S. military involvement could strain ties with a key West African partner and complicate counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel, while fueling anti-American sentiment amid growing Russian and Chinese influence. (BBC, November 3, 2025)

TANZANIA’S PRESIDENT DECLARED ELECTION WINNER AMID VIOLENT PROTESTS
On November 1st, Tanzania’s electoral commission declared President Samia Suluhu Hassan the winner of the October election, securing nearly 98 percent of the vote. The announcement followed violent protests over the disqualification of major opposition parties, with demonstrations spreading across major cities, fueled economic frustration and rampant unemployment. The government responded by shutting down the internet, imposing a curfew, and deploying the military. Opposition groups allege widespread repression and report hundreds of casualties, while the UN has confirmed at least 10 deaths. The electoral result consolidates Hassan’s power, but highlights growing discontent in one of East Africa’s traditionally stable nations. (New York Times, November 1, 2025)

AMERICA EYES LIBERIA’S CRITICAL MINERALS
Last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Liberian Foreign Minister Sara Beysolow Nyanti to explore expanding U.S. participation in Liberia’s critical minerals sector and boosting investment in order to drive economic growth. The talks align with the Trump administration’s push for commercial diplomacy abroad and its focus on securing essential minerals for U.S. industry and defense. The White House is endeavoring to diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on rival powers amid intensifying global competition for African resources. For Liberia, meanwhile, deeper engagement with the U.S. could rebalance foreign influence and reshape regional alignments, underscoring Africa’s growing role in global mineral supply chains. (Reuters, October 17, 2025; Liberian Observer, October 20, 2025)

RSF TAKES KEY CITY OF EL FASHER FROM SUDANESE MILITARY
Sudan’s army withdrew from the city of El Fasher in late October, after the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized the city’s main military base. The shift marks a major shift in the nearly three-year conflict in the northeastern African state. Once a key government stronghold, El Fasher had been under siege since April 2024, with famine and mass displacement worsening amid repeated RSF drone and artillery strikes.

After the base was overrun, government troops and allied fighters fled into residential areas. The RSF, meanwhile, are meting out brutal punishment. The UN has reported credible accounts of RSF forces executing civilians attempting to flee. In Washington, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Jim Risch condemned the “horrors” in El Fasher and called for the RSF’s terrorist designation. (New York Times, October 28, 2025)