Russia Reform Monitor No. 2549

SILENCING SOLDIERS' FAMILIES
As Russia's war effort has dragged on, it has become harder and harder for the Kremlin to maintain the fiction that its "special military operation" on the territory of its western neighbor is going well. As a result, Moscow has resorted to growing censorship of news that doesn't comport with its official narrative about the conflict. Part of that effort includes silencing the relatives of Russian soldiers. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office, for instance, has blocked the webpage of the "Council of Wives and Mothers" on VKontakte, Russia's version of Facebook. The Council is a group of women consisting of the wives and mothers of Russian men swept up in Putin's "partial mobilization," who have leveled considerable criticism at the Russian government for a range of irregularities, such as subjecting newly mobilized conscripts to equipment shortages and drafting individuals who had legal exemptions or were not reservists. (Meduza, November 27, 2022) 

A WANING APPETITE FOR WAR
While Russian President Vladimir Putin's popularity appears to remain high, support for his war of choice in Ukraine has begun to wane appreciably as the conflict has dragged on. When surveyed in July, the number of Russians who said they wanted Russian troops to remain in Ukraine was 57%. That figure has now declined to 25%, according to the results of new internal polling carried out by the Russian government and acquired by Meduza. These declining figures reflect growing discontent over the massive casualties suffered by the Russian military, as well as the domestic pressure created by Putin's "partial mobilization" order earlier this Fall. (Times of London, November 30, 2022) 

[EDITORS' NOTE: Given the effect of Russia's increasingly authoritarian political climate on pollsters and respondents alike, the results of all public opinion surveys carried out within Russia should be viewed with some degree of caution.] 

RUSSIA RAILS AGAINST INTERNATIONAL ACCOUNTABILITY
The Kremlin is striking a defiant stance in the face of growing international calls for its accountability for war crimes and atrocities committed in Ukraine. Russian officials have said that any international tribunal appointed to investigate its conduct would "lack legitimacy." The comments follow recent remarks by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who touted the idea of prosecuting Russia for its war crimes in Ukraine in a specialized court. Any such tribunal "will not be accepted by [Russia] and will be condemned by [Russia]," the Russian response read. (The Moscow Times, December 1, 2022) 

PUTIN: NO NEED FOR ANOTHER DRAFT – FOR NOW
Amid claims that the Russian military has lost many a significant percentage of its forces, and rumors that Moscow is planning yet another incursion into Ukraine in the spring, President Vladimir Putin has taken pains to reassure his citizenry that there are no plans currently for another mobilization. The step is a pragmatic one; Putin's controversial September order, which saw over 300,000 reservists drafted in ensuing weeks, has been one of the most significant sources of discontent among Russians regarding the war. Authorities in Moscow have been accused of disproportionately sending conscription papers to members of the country's ethnic minorities, as well as those who had never previously served in the military. (Deutsche Welle, December 7, 2022) 

A SKEWED PRISONER SWAP
In a surprise move, the Biden administration has carried out a prisoner swap with the Kremlin, exchanging U.S. basketball player Brittney Griner for infamous Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. Griner was arrested on drug-possession charges while transiting through Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport last year. She had recently received a nine-year sentence in a Russian penal colony from a Russian court. Bout, known as the "merchant of death," was apprehended in 2008 by Thai authorities for his role in the global illicit arms trade, and subsequently extradited to the United States. The exchange was notable for whom it did not include, however; Russian authorities refused to contemplate including former Marine Paul Whelan, who has been behind bars in Russia since 2018 on charges of espionage brought by the Russian government. 

While supporters of the Administration have lauded the swap, others have criticized its parameters – in particular the exclusion of Whelan from the deal. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the Fox News Sunday program that the exchange was "not good for American national security," because it had the practical effect of putting Americans (in particular prominent Americans) at greater risk of being taken "hostage" by hostile regimes. "...there is no doubt that today, not just [Russian president] Vladimir Putin, but all the bad guys, the Iranians, others, who hold Americans in detention see that if you take a celebrity, the chance of getting one of your bad guys back out of American control is greater," Pompeo said. (Reuters, December 9, 2022; New York Post, December 14, 2022)