Russia Reform Monitor No. 2558

A DOMESTIC RESISTANCE RISES
Homegrown discontent over Russia's war in Ukraine is growing, and the beginnings of a sustained domestic opposition seems to be emerging. A new documentary by British filmmaker Jake Hanrahan puts forth the notion that a "large-scale, active resistance inside Russia" has begun to take shape – manifested in the mysterious fires and incidents of sabotage that have plagued Russian military outposts and facilities in recent months. The film, entitled "Russia's Anti-Putin Underground," was released on YouTube in early January. In it, Hanrahan interviews two Russian radical leftist "partisans" who detail a series of "sabotage actions" that they have taken against authorities to date – and who claim that an estimated 30 cells throughout Russia are now active in carrying out such subversive activities. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, January 3, 2023) 

THE KREMLIN REDRAWS THE MAP
In its efforts to reshape domestic and international opinion about its war in Ukraine, the Kremlin is attempting to manipulate a new topic: cartography. Russia's government has reportedly backed a new legislative amendment to the country's extremism laws that would classify any map at variance with the official interpretation of Russia's "territorial integrity" as extremist material. The measure, if adopted, would criminalize any "cartographic and other documents and images" that don't depict the borders of the Russian Federation as defined by Moscow – including encompassing Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, which the Russian government unilaterally annexed back in 2014 after a stage-managed referendum. (The Daily Beast, January 9, 2023) 

[EDITORS' NOTE: The measure, if passed, won't simply codify Russia's claims to Crimea. It will also extend to the country's aspirations over the Kuril Islands, the subject of a territorial dispute between Russia and Japan dating back to the Second World War. Additionally, it would enshrine as Russian territory the four Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, over which Russia unilaterally declared sovereignty in September of 2022. Western nations have roundly rejected the validity of those latest claims.] 

MEDVEDEV WANTS TO PUNISH "TRAITORS"
The Deputy Head of Russia's Security Council has called for citizens who actively oppose the country's war effort to be dealt with extra-judicially. "There on the Internet/telegrams, the discussion resumed on how to deal with traitors who have switched to the enemy and want to kill their Fatherland," Dmitry Medvedev wrote in a message on his Telegram channel. Such individuals should be dealt with "only by law," the former president and premier insisted. "But if the law does not work or does not achieve the goal, then [they should be dealt with] according to special rules of wartime." Direct action against such "traitors," Medvedev made clear, could be carried out by "quiet groups of impeccably imperceptible people who perform them effectively." (Ukrainskaya Pravda, January 9, 2023) 

ESTONIA EYES RUSSIAN ASSETS
In early January, the Baltic nation of Estonia announced plans to introduce a legal blueprint for authorities to seize Russian funds frozen by EU sanctions and thereafter render them to Ukraine. The effort, announced by the country's foreign ministry, follows a government tasking last month to create a framework for the formal seizure of Russian assets. Ukrainian officials have called for some $300 billion in Russian foreign exchange reserves now held by Western governments (like Estonia) to be provided to Kyiv as reparations for the Kremlin's war of aggression. (Bloomberg, January 9, 2023) 

MOSCOW HAS MONEY TO BURN
Despite extensive international sanctions, Russia's economy has remained strong – at least for the time being. The country's current account surplus hit a record high last year of $227.4 billion in spite of Western pressure, Reuters reports, as a result of continued oil and gas exports and a reduction in imports. The $227 billion figure represents a staggering 86% increase over 2021 numbers. 

Beginning next month, the G7 is planning to expand its current oil embargo against Russia beyond crude, to encompass oil products, and this is expected to make a dent in Russian revenues. However, the move is likely to be offset, at least partially, by growing Russian energy trade with China. According to Chinese customs data, trade between the two countries hit a record high of $190 billion last year. (Reuters, January 17, 2023)