Russia Reform Monitor No. 2560

A RUSSIAN TERROR CAMPAIGN
Amid mounting pressure from the West for its war in Ukraine, Moscow is lashing out at Europe in novel ways. The Russian Imperial Movement, a radical white supremacist group, is believed to have targeted Spain's prime minister, defense minister, and assorted foreign diplomats. U.S. officials say that the campaign, which took place in late November and early December, was directed by Russian military intelligence as a method of asymmetric warfare against the West. "This seems like a warning shot," former State Department counterterrorism coordinator Nathan Sales has said. "It's Russia sending a signal that it's prepared to use terrorist proxies to attack in the West's rear areas." (New York Times, January 22, 2023) 

HOW MOSCOW IS BEEFING UP ITS MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
A chronic shortage of manpower in the Russian military has prompted the Russian government to revert to the Soviet-era practice of relying on prisoners to beef up the ranks. In recent months, the notorious Wagner mercenary group run by Kremlin confidante Yevgeny Prigozhin has made headlines for recruiting inmates from Russia's prisons and penal colonies to fight in the war in Ukraine, with promises of parole for those who survive (and financial subsidies for the families of those who don't). But Russia's prison population is now being used for another purpose as well, write journalists Irina Borogan and Andrei Soldatov in a piece for the Center for European Policy Analysis. To wit, prisoners are now being "steered towards the manufacture of tanks and other weaponry" to shore up a chronic deficit of workers in Russia's military-industrial complex. 

"It's hardly a secret that the country has been experiencing a shortage of locksmiths, welders, and turners for a very long time," Borogan and Soldatov explain. "And now Russia just doesn't have enough workers to manufacture missiles and tanks for Putin's war in Ukraine." Specifically, they estimate, the shortage "will soon reach 400,000 people" – fully a fifth of the 2,000,000 workers employed in the country's defense sector. Against this backdrop, Russian prisoners are increasingly being conscripted not only to fight on the front lines, but to supply weaponry to those who do. (Center for European Policy Analysis, January 27, 2023) 

A FOOTHOLD IN AFRICA
Amid Russia's increasing isolation from the West, the Kremlin has found unexpected opportunities for political partnership elsewhere – such as in Africa. On January 19th, South Africa's military announced plans to conduct naval exercises with both China and Russia in February. According to Darren Olivier of the African Defense Review, the exercise has taken on "a stronger ideological importance at a political level" against the backdrop of the Ukraine war. Specifically, it reflects Cape Town's continued strategic alignment with Moscow; the South African government has maintained strong ties to the Kremlin, and it abstained from an earlier United Nations vote condemning Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory. Russia, for its part, has confirmed that the Admiral Gorshkov, its flagship frigate currently on a trans-oceanic power projection tour, will soon participate in the upcoming drills with the Chinese and South African militaries. (New York Times, January 19, 2023; Itar-TASS, January 25, 2023) 

FORMER CONVICTS THREATEN RUSSIAN CITIZENS
The deal struck between the Wagner mercenary group and assorted prison inmates conscripted for the Ukraine war has been simple: serve a six-month stint on the front lines, and receive parole for your crimes. Now, as these criminals conclude their service, the effects are starting to be felt within Russian society. The Daily Beast, citing Russian news outlet Baza, reports that residents of Moscow have begun receiving calls from people identifying themselves as police officers warning them to keep their children indoors to avoid contact with the returning inmates, some of whom had been imprisoned on pedophilia charges. It's unclear whether the calls were actually placed by law enforcement agencies, or simply by concerned citizens or political activists. However, The Daily Beast notes, Russia's security services are said to be "legitimately concerned about what will happen in Russian society once hordes of freed prison inmates come home from the frontline and try to adjust to normal life." (The Daily Beast, January 24, 2023) 

GETTING STUDENTS INTO FIGHTING SHAPE
Vladimir Putin's growing militarization of Russian society has now the country's secondary schools. A new policy announced by the Russian Ministry of Education will require that all secondary school students participate in military training as part of their curriculum. The "Basics of Life Safety" course will cover topics like training with AK rifles and military drills. In December, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education announced a matching policy for university students. Similar requirements existed under the Soviet Union, but were lifted in 1993. (Washington Times, January 29, 2023)