PRIORITIZING WAR OVER EDUCATION
The Kremlin's "all hands on deck" approach to the war in Ukraine has affected norms in all sectors, including the country's education sphere. In an effort to find more military-age men, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Education, Yana Lantratova, has proposed a change to existing academic leave policies. Instead of citing "inability to master the educational program for medical reasons, family and other circumstances" as a reason for taking leave, Lantratova's proposed policy would allow for students to specify that they are leaving to participate in the Kremlin's "special military operation" as an excuse as well. Additionally, instead of only two years of leave being permitted, the new policy will extend for an unspecified amount of time. (life.ru, May 18, 2023)
HOW WAGNER IS EXPLOITING AFRICA
Amid ongoing battlefield difficulties and squabbles over resources with Russia's Ministry of Defense, the notorious Wagner mercenary group is looking for assistance from its African partners in obtaining equipment to use in Ukraine. Wagner, which has been active in Mali since that country's coup in 2021, is looking to use the African nation as a third party through which to route military systems from "unspecified" suppliers, U.S. officials say. While the United States has already imposed sanctions on Wagner itself, as well as a number of actors supporting the group, it has so far dragged its feet on penalizing the company's African partners. That state of affairs, however, may soon change. (Reuters, May 22, 2023)
GALLUP: RUSSIA IN IMPERIAL DECLINE
For years, Russia has worked to maintain and improve its standing among its former territorial holdings in Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Baltics. Moscow's appeal across what its considers its sphere of influence, however, has taken a massive hit as a result of its campaign against Ukraine. A new survey by Gallup has highlighted a number of key changes that the Kremlin's "special military operation" against Kyiv has wrought. The first is that "approval of Russia's leadership fell sharply among most of Russia's neighbors between 2021 and 2022," and most significantly in countries like Armenia, Moldova, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, which are "historically sympathetic to Russian leadership." Second, Russia's current offensive against Ukraine has had a much more marked impact on perceptions than its earlier, 2014 invasion did – because "the thin justification for the land grab, and the magnitude of violence are fertile grounds for concern, particularly in countries with their own ethnic divisions."
Third, Russia's concept of the "Russkiy Mir" (Russian World) is declining in appeal, as "[p]eople who identify as ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan, Estonia and Latvia - the countries with the largest such groups as a percentage of the national population - are increasingly rejecting Russia's actions." In fact, less and less people residing in countries with large Russian diasporas are today "identifying as Russian," the Gallup study found.
The implications are potentially profound. As Gallup notes, Russia's receding influence in the "post-Soviet space" may create an opening for other superpowers (like China) to gain ground in the region. Moreover, Russia's misadventure in Ukraine has "seriously eroded its status and prestige" – and "[t]his seismic shift in public opinion may signal the twilight of Europe's last empire." (Gallup, May 24, 2023)
INFORMING ON YOUR NEIGHBORS MAKES A COMEBACK
As the war in Ukraine drags on, a culture of paranoia and totalitarianism is deepening within Russia – exemplified by Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent call for "the nation to purge itself by spitting out traitors 'like gnats.'" That terminology is reminiscent of the Soviet police state during Stalin's time, so it's no surprise that methods ubiquitous to that period are also making a comeback. Restaurant patrons, subway riders, and even students and teachers are reporting on one another for commentary critical of the war – and the victims are facing disciplinary measures from an increasingly intolerant Russian state. As social anthropologist Alexandra Arkhipova explains, "the state's use of snitches and the many random arrests serve as powerful tools of social control." (Washington Post, May 30, 2023)
