South Asia Strategy Monitor No. 22

February 24, 2025 Rehna Sheth,  Nathan Blustajn,  Austin Nye
Related Categories: Energy Security; Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues; International Economics and Trade; Public Diplomacy and Information Operations; Afghanistan; China; India; Pakistan; South Asia; Sri Lanka

SENSING AN OPENING, INDIA DEEPENS ITS TIES TO THE TALIBAN
Earlier this year, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban's acting Foreign Minister, to discuss expanding trade and deepening relations between New Delhi and Kabul. The meeting marked the highest-level talks between India and Afghanistan since the Taliban's return to power in Kabul in the wake of the August 2021 U.S. withdrawal. It was also apparently fruitful; Taliban officials have subsequently referred to India as a "significant regional and economic partner."

The development is a rather unexpected one. Following its resurgence, many believed that the Taliban would align Afghanistan with neighboring Pakistan, thereby expanding Islamabad's influence in South Asia. This, however, hasn't happened. In fact, recent months have seen significant strains creep into the Afghan-Pakistani relationship as a result of cross-border militancy. For its part, New Delhi has exploited the resulting opening to progressively strengthen its economic and political ties to the Islamist movement. While Delhi still does not officially recognize Afghanistan's Taliban-led government, it nevertheless operates a small mission in Kabul to facilitate trade and humanitarian aid to the country. (Al Jazeera, January 13, 2025; Reuters, January 9, 2025)

PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH REVIVE DIRECT SHIPPING ROUTE
Though it went largely unnoticed outside the region, last November saw the first direct voyage of a cargo ship from Pakistan to Bangladesh in five decades, reflecting a significant easing of tensions between the two countries in recent months. The shipment, which came in the wake of consultations between Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Bangladesh's interim Prime Minister, Muhammad Yunus, on the sidelines of September's United Nations General Assembly, reflects Dhaka's desire to broaden its ties to Islamabad.

But if Pakistan benefits from the arrangement, India is a clear loser. Bangladesh ranks as India's largest trading partner in South Asia, a position that could be thrown into doubt if the country's ties to Pakistan continue to expand. Compounding worries in Delhi, Dhaka chose to forgo its usual mandatory full inspection of goods imported from Pakistan – a procedure which was put in place after a shipment of arms from Pakistan intended for a rebel group in India's northeast was intercepted at the same port in 2004. Finally, there is concern that this voyage could open up the possibility of other nations, such as China, docking their ships in Bangladesh, which currently serves as a critical security and economic point for India. (South China Morning Post, November 18, 2024)

SRI LANKA THROWS IN WITH CHINESE ENERGY GIANT
This January, Sri Lanka's foreign minister announced that the country had come to an agreement with China's state-owned energy conglomerate Sinopec to fast-track construction of an oil refinery in the city of Hambantota. Once operational, the refinery would become the country's largest to date. The $3.7 billion investment deal is part of a larger series of economic and technology cooperation agreements signed during Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake's recent visit to Beijing. It is also a sign of Colombo's domestic priorities, given the resource-strapped island's current, near-exclusive reliance on imports of foreign oil.

However, the Sri Lankan deal has significant strategic implications as well. Late last decade, Sri Lanka was obligated to relinquish control of its strategic port at Hambantota port to Chinese control for a period of 99 years after it found itself unable to repay loans to the PRC. Moreover, Sri Lanka's decision potentially imperils India's desire to be the leading energy supplier for the island. (France 24, January 16, 2025; Reuters, January 22, 2025)

AFGHAN REFUGEES IN A BIND
During the first two weeks of January, Pakistani authorities ramped up their deportation of undocumented Afghan refugees, expelling 285 individuals and detaining hundreds more as part of an ongoing crackdown. Following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, tens of thousands of Afghans fled to Pakistan, many seeking resettlement through the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program. The current crackdown has escalated concerns among the approximately 20,000 Afghans who have already been approved for U.S. resettlement, and whose relocation has been stalled due to the 90-day suspension of the Refugee Admissions Program imposed by the Trump administration in late January. Many of these individuals, who assisted U.S. forces during the war, now fear deportation before their resettlement requests can be processed. Human rights groups have urged Islamabad to ease visa restrictions and grant Afghans temporary legal status, citing the risks they face in their home country, now under Taliban rule. Pakistani officials, however, maintain that they will honor commitments only to those already approved for U.S. relocation. (Amnesty International, January 8, 2025; Voice of America, January 16, 2025; Associated Press, February 3, 2025)