Resource Security Watch No. 59

DOD CONSIDERS CLIMATE CHANGE A GROWING SECURITY THREAT IN AFRICA
The Pentagon sees climate change as a rising security concern in Africa, where environmental stressors such as desertification, rising temperatures, and deepening resource scarcity have triggered a growing number of conflicts. Maureen Farrell, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, noted that these issues, especially in areas like Djibouti, exacerbate tensions over water and land, displace millions, and create opportunities for extremist groups to recruit. In response, the Defense Department is working with African nations to adapt its military operations to these changing conditions. (DOD News, December 11, 2024)

TEHRAN FACES SHUTDOWNS AMID WORSENING AIR QUALITY
This December, poor air quality in Tehran prompted a shutdown of governmental offices, universities, and schools, as well as the temporary closing of universities and schools, in the Iranian capital and the province that bears its name. The nearby provinces of Alborz and Isfahan were also affected. Notably, Iran's geography is particularly susceptible to the formation of harmful smog. The mountainous landscape traps cold and stagnant air, polluted by fossil fuel emissions from aging cars, motorbikes, and factories, within the occupied valleys, resulting in Tehran's notorious substandard air quality. During the winter months, the situation is worsened by the lack of wind and rain. The resulting conditions are particularly dangerous for at-risk groups, such as the elderly, sick, and children. (Associated Press, December 10, 2024)

[EDITORS' NOTE: The impact of poor air quality in Tehran and other Iranian urban centers has a pronounced political effect on the country. The trend – and the Iranian regime's chronic mismanagement of resources, which has hampered cogent responses to it – has led to costly governmental shutdowns, caused economic disruptions, and impacted education for a wide swath of school-age Iranians.]

A NEW COLD WAR OVER RARE EARTH ELEMENTS
A new struggle, driven by competition over rare minerals, is emerging, and China is at the forefront. Writing in The National Interest, former Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Frank Fannon outlines that Beijing is waging a "quiet war against America" through its efforts to monopolize rare earth elements. Originally, China, a territory with a domestic oil supply inadequate for its energy needs, sought to limit its dependency on foreign oil sources through a transition to an electrified economy, Fannon notes. As part of that process, the PRC emphasized and encouraged clean technology and electric vehicle industries, while simultaneously restricting the export of materials critical for renewable energy efforts, such as graphite, germanium, and gallium, to the U.S. More recently, however, Beijing has incorporated control over rare earths as a key part of its foreign policy, using its Belt & Road Initiative to seek to dominate the global market for critical materials through investments in the "Global South." In this way, Fannon writes, the Chinese government has been able to pose a significant challenge America's economic, military, and technological primacy. (The National Interest, December 17, 2024)

FAMINE IN SUDAN EXPANDS AS GOVERNMENT RESISTS FOREIGN AID
Amid rising tensions with the Sudanese government over foreign food assistance, the UN's Integrated Food Phase Committee (IPC) has warned that 24.6 million people, around half of Sudan's population, are in urgent need of food as famine persists. Five regions of the country have been confirmed as facing famine conditions, including two camps for internally displaced Sudanese in Abu Shouk and al-Salam, the capital of North Darfur, as well as communities in the Nuba Mountains. The IPC has predicted that famine will likely spread to five more areas within the state of North Darfur, and identified an additional 17 areas at risk for famine.

The civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has intensified food insecurity in Sudan, and the RSF's disruptive actions against humanitarian aid, local farms, and food trade has worsened access to nutrition for Sudan's population. Additionally, the Sudanese government's resistance to foreign intervention has led to the obstruction of food assistance and plummeting visa acceptance rates for aid workers. (Reuters, December 24, 2024)

CHINA'S WATER POLICIES ENDANGER CENTRAL ASIAN STABILITY
Kazakhstan and China are in ongoing talks over the regulation of transboundary rivers, aiming to prevent the depletion of Lake Balkhash and other key water reservoirs in Kazakhstan. Disagreements persist as China continues to divert significant water resources for the development of its region of Xinjiang, leading to depleted water levels. Russian analysts warn that Chinese interference in the supply will exacerbate current issues and endanger other vital water sources in Kazakhstan. Water shortages aggravated by Chinese interference are directly putting agricultural practices and human welfare at risk. Kazakh authorities are now forced to coordinate with surrounding countries to help combat the severe shortages. (Window on Eurasia, December 5, 2024)