Publications

Change is brewing in the Islamic Republic. In recent weeks, hundreds of thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets in what amounts to a groundswell of opposition to Tehran's ruling regime. In unprecedented fashion, they have been joined by senior clerics and regime stalwarts like the Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri - until recently the Imam of Isfahan - who have publicly condemned the country's growing corruption and deepening decline. But perhaps the most significant event, and the one that could decisively influence the struggle for Iran's soul, has taken place in Washington. Responding to reports of the rising opposition in Iran, US President George W. Bush issued a July 12th statement calling for "freedoms, human rights, and opportunities" and for meaningful change brought about by "political and economic reform."

Amid growing indications of a campaign against Iraq, U.S. officials are taking note of an alarming development. Scattered but not yet decisively defeated, al Qaeda appears to be regrouping — this time on the periphery of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

This spring, amid growing preparations in Washington for a campaign against Iraq, the American intelligence community dropped a major bombshell. Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee on emerging threats to U.S. security, Admiral Thomas Wilson, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, revealed that “Iran’s navy is the most capable in the region and, even with the presence of Western forces, can probably stem the flow of oil from the Gulf for brief periods by employing a layered force of KILO submarines, missile patrol boats, naval mines, and sea and shore-based anti-ship cruise missiles.” Wilson’s warning underscores a remarkable fact: Iran is back. After years of international isolation and economic decline, Tehran is rapidly reemerging as a major regional player.

Amid the current turmoil in the Middle East, the White House is quietly gearing up for another challenge.This weekend, President Bush will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in a historic meeting - one that could further define the future of our war on terrorism. By all accounts, the summit is shaping up to be a major success. Over the past several months, an unexpected consensus has emerged between Moscow and Washington on a number of critical international issues. But on one topic - Iran - Moscow and Washington remain worlds apart.

Yasser Arafat is back. Fresh from his extended confinement in Ramallah, the Palestinian leader is again prominently in the press, working hard to spin the latest, disastrous Palestinian intifada into a personal political victory. On May 15, the Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman took his political agenda one step further, testing the waters of a previously taboo topic in the West Bank and Gaza — the future of Palestinian governance. In a major speech before a packed session of the Palestinian Legislative Council, he aired a vague call for "change and reform" within the West Bank and Gaza. "I'm calling for a re-evaluation of all our administrative and ministerial bodies, the security apparatuses, after there have been signs of mismanagement," Arafat told the Palestinian parliament. Nice words to be sure, and music to sympathetic ears in Europe, where efforts to rehabilitate Arafat as a leader and a statesman are already gathering steam. But serious skepticism is in order. After all, Arafat has made this promise before.