For the third workshop, we exposed players to a diversity of plausible scenarios that would challenge U.S. leadership. Some continued to expose participants to the PRC’s grand vision for space, such as its plans for super-heavy reusable launch, or its plans for an asteroid return mission, or its plans for a massive solar power station prototype. Other scenarios considered the public reaction to a spacecraft tragedy in orbit or an asteroid close approach. Yet another considered a rapid proliferation of anti-satellite missiles to second-tier powers. Each of these scenarios presents novel challenges for U.S. policymakers, and this workshop provided an opportunity to consider them.
The six scenarios contained herein were constructed as a result of recent news headlines that have demonstrated an adversary capability or development toward a capability that could be destabilizing and elicit a reaction from the U.S. government. After the first workshop, participants universally agreed that the U.S. is currently “behind the eight ball” with regard to advancements in space—despite holding a massive head start and benefitting from the advent of reusable rockets. In comparison to China, participants were emphatic that there is a clear and decisive disparity between the two nations’ visions and strategies for space. After walking through each scenario and realizing that certain near-term developments could provide China with a decided strategic advantage, it became imperative that the U.S. should invest in certain areas to avoid having to face the daunting headlines experienced in the six scenarios. The results of the second and third workshops were along the same lines.
The report contains a description of each scenario, the rationale for the specific scenarios’ selection, a summary of the participant discussion, and the recommendations from the NSpC players, followed by a summary of the key takeaways and recommendations from the whole exercise. Finally, an appendix is attached containing the assessment, concerns, and recommendations of each NSpC participant along with the discussion highlighting the group’s tensions and options considered for each scenario.
