For the second workshop, focus was placed on reacting to major space events above and beyond geostationary orbit and focused on Lunar/Cislunar development. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has outlined a grand vision for space and over the next two decades has plans to—among other milestones—unveil incrementally improved capabilities for developing a Moon-Earth economic zone, including 3D printing Lunar factories. The PRC has identified many of the same sites of interest on the Lunar South Pole, and concerns have been raised about the potential for conflict over limited land. Each of these scenarios carries strategic significance for U.S. policymakers, and this workshop provided an opportunity to analyze them.
The six scenarios contained herein were constructed as a result of recent news headlines that have demonstrated an adversary capability or development toward a capability that could be destabilizing and elicit a reaction from the U.S. government. After the first workshop, participants universally agreed that the U.S. is currently “behind the eight ball” with regard to advancements in space—despite holding a massive head start and benefitting from the advent of reusable rockets. In comparison to China, participants were emphatic that there is a clear and decisive disparity between the two nations’ visions and strategies for space. After walking through each scenario and realizing that certain near-term developments could provide China with a decided strategic advantage, it became imperative that the U.S. should invest in certain areas to avoid having to face the daunting headlines experienced in the six scenarios. The result of the second workshop was along the same lines.
The report contains a description of each scenario, the rationale for the specific scenarios’ selection, a summary of the participant discussion, and the recommendations from the NSpC players, followed by a summary of the key takeaways and recommendations from the whole exercise. Finally, an appendix is attached containing the assessment, concerns, and recommendations of each NSpC participant along with the discussion highlighting the group’s tensions and options considered for each scenario.
