Articles

In Iran, an Electoral Flop

February 26, 2020 Ilan I. Berman National Review

What if you held a national election and no one turned out? That’s the situation currently confronting Iranian officials, who are grappling with the aftermath of a truly disastrous outcome in last week’s parliamentary elections.

How The Revolutionary Guards Could Reshape Iran

February 24, 2020 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

Iran’s clerical army could decide that an internal transition is the best answer, and move to remove (or at least subordinate) the country’s current clerical elite. Such a step, after all, would allow the IRGC to preserve its current, extensive grip on national power while simultaneously working to alleviate economic pressure from the U.S. and reintegrate into the international community.

The Risks Of Sino-Saudi Partnership

February 20, 2020 Ilan I. Berman Al-Hurra Digital

What does Riyadh really think about China? It was one of the questions on my mind last week, when I led a research delegation to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the invitation of the country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Trump’s Plan Forces Palestinian Choices

January 31, 2020 Ilan I. Berman Al-Hurra Digital

It's your move, Mahmoud Abbas. That's the basic message behind the Trump administration's long-awaited "deal of the century," which was unveiled publicly on Tuesday at a joint press conference between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Washington needs to anticipate Iran’s next provocation

January 30, 2020 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

Signs are mounting that in Tehran, which faces rising pressures at home and abroad, the country’s powerful hardline conservatives are circling the wagons, raising the odds of still more Iranian global provocations. The question is whether Washington — which continues to tighten the economic screws on Tehran — is ready for what might come next.

How Demographics Could Spark Change in Iran

January 25, 2020 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

For years, Iran’s ruling ayatollahs have grappled with a profoundly vexing problem: how best to maintain the loyalty of the country’s growing (and increasingly unruly) population. The question isn’t strictly a political one. It is also made significantly more complicated by the age of the Islamic Republic’s population, which cuts against the regime in key ways.

The Real Start Of “Maximum Pressure” Against Iran

January 3, 2020 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

The targeting of Soleimani – which followed on the heels of U.S. military strikes on multiple facilities in Iraq operated by Kataib Hezbollah, a key Iranian regional proxy – has ushered in a qualitatively new phase in the Trump administration’s confrontation with Iran. Chances are, it will be one punctuated by heightened hostilities