Resource Security Watch No. 63

WASHINGTON PUSHES EUROPE ON ENERGY DECOUPLING
As part of ongoing efforts to isolate Moscow over its war on Ukraine, the European Union is under mounting pressure from the United States to fully eliminate its reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027. Although Europe has drastically cut Russian oil and gas imports since 2022, it remains a key importer of liquified natural gas (LNG) and smaller specialized fuel products. The EU's share of Russian oil imports has dropped from nearly a third to approximately 2% in 2025, though countries such as Hungary and Slovakia continue to receive exemptions. Russian LNG imports, however, have risen – partially filling that gap. The European Commission has considered moving up a planned ban on Russian LNG by one year, arguing that growing production in the United States and Qatar could cushion the market impact. Another focus is on closing loopholes that allow the import of fuels such as gas condensate, pure butane, and vacuum gas oil, which have continued under various exemptions. These products, while a small share of total imports, still generate revenue for Moscow and undermine the EU's sanctions regime. (Reuters, October 1, 2025)

UKRAINE'S POTENTIAL NUCLEAR DISASTER
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station has lost power ten times and the facility remains vulnerable to attack. The Ukrainian reactor, moreover, isn't an isolated case. On October 1st, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant suffered a Russian drone strike that cut power for three hours. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described these incidents as deliberate attempts by the Kremlin to provoke major radiological crises. When power is lost, facilities can temporarily restore electricity through diesel generators; however, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi has acknowledged that this solution is "not sustainable." Moreover, as fighting continues to rage, critical repairs are difficult to carry out. In all, Ukraine operates five nuclear power plants, each of which remains vulnerable to potential hostilities. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, October 1, 2025)

IRAN'S WATER CRISIS... AND ITS EFFECTS
Iran is currently facing one of the most severe water crises in modern history. Water mismanagement, coupled with prolonged drought, climate change, inefficient irrigation practices, and over-extraction of groundwater have combined into a crisis that now affects every aspect of Iranian life. Rivers and lakes are shrinking, undermining agriculture and deepening food insecurity across the region. Urban areas face widespread water shortages and infrastructure is increasingly strained. Communities nationwide are exposed to rising health risks as the drying of wetlands produces saline dust, a harmful substance to the respiratory system. Regional ecosystems have collapsed, particularly in Golestan Province, where hundreds of migratory birds failed to appear this autumn, signaling a severe loss of biodiversity.

Solutions to the crisis, however, are in short supply. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stressed moving Iran's capital from Tehran to the south, emphasizing that "relocation [is] an obligation." However, other officials have pointed to the broader issue of systemic water mismanagement, and insist that massive reforms are needed to prevent the Islamic Republic from descending into an ecological, agricultural, and humanitarian crisis. (Newsweek, October 6, 2025)

INDIA'S NATIONAL RARE EARTH STRATEGY
In response to recent Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports, the Indian government is seeking to advance its national resource independence. The country's National Critical Mineral Stockpile (NCMS) program aims to safeguard access to rare earth elements through the creation of a two-month reserve of key rare earth materials. The NCMS will rely on the participation from private companies and public-sector entities to eventually expand into other critical minerals vital to India's clean energy transition and manufacturing sectors. (Money Control News, October 13, 2025)

U.S., EU COMBAT CHINA'S CRITICAL MINERALS CONTROL
A collaboration between the European Union and the United States in the critical minerals sector is a growing possibility after China's recent expansion of export controls on rare earths. European Trade Commissioner Marcos Sefcovic is among the EU ministers meeting in Denmark to discuss a long-term strategy to further the continent's mineral independence. To Sefcovic, this is an "an area of common interest with our friends in the U.S. If we stick together we can much better pressure China to act in a fair way." He further proposed a diversification of supply through joint projects to extract and process critical minerals. (Reuters, October 14, 2025)