China Policy Monitor No. 1620

Related Categories: Democracy and Governance; Economic Sanctions; Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues; International Economics and Trade; China; Iran; Southeast Asia; Thailand; Turkey

DEFLATION GRIPS CHINA
The Chinese economy is struggling with deflation. In 2024, consumer prices in China rose 0.1 percent, wholesale prices fell by more than 2 percent, and export prices dropped 8 percent. In response, investors are shifting from riskier assets like stocks and real estate into bonds, pushing prices up and yields down. To prevent a bubble in the bond market that could leave banks with high losses, the People's Bank of China announced that it was pausing purchases of government bonds. The central bank hopes halting its bond purchases will help buoy low interest rates, which, thanks to high rates in the U.S., are encouraging people to sell renminbi assets and buy those denominated in dollars. New York Times, January 10, 2025)

AS JOBS DWINDLE, YOUTH FLOCK TO CIVIL SERVICE EXAMS
Amid sky high youth unemployment, 3.4 million Chinese applicants sat for the country's national civil service exam in 2024. Lured by job security and perks like subsidized housing, applicants surged by more than 400,000 from 2023 figures, and have tripled since 2014. Many young Chinese are disenchanted with the lack of private sector jobs and desire the stability of government employment. Meanwhile, local government austerity measures have resulted in staff cuts, bonus reductions, and pay cuts of up to 30 percent for public sector workers. Although the national government is hiring more civil servants – up from 14,500 in 2019 to 39,700 in 2024 – the provinces have been cutting tens of thousands of public sector jobs. (The Straits Times, December 29, 2024)

FOREIGN DEGREE HOLDERS BANNED FROM CIVIL SERVICE EXAM
Provinces are excluding Chinese graduates with foreign degrees from the xuandiaosheng, or "selected and assigned graduates" system, an elite civil service recruitment program designed to select and train future leaders for the party and government. Official notices in Guangdong and Shandong, for instance, state that in the 2025 recruitment cycle only applicants from domestic colleges and universities will be considered. (South China Morning Post, January 11, 2025)

IRAN SELLS OIL STORED IN CHINA TO FUND PROXIES
Iran has shipped three million barrels of oil from its storage facilities in China to raise money to support its Revolutionary Guard Corps and its assorted proxy militias. The oil is part of a stockpile of 25 million barrels that Iran shipped to China in 2018, ahead of sanctions imposed by the first Trump administration, and is worth about $1 billion. Beijing approved the shipment in December after receiving a request from Tehran, and the oil was transported aboard two ships from Dalian, Liaoning. The ships turned off their AIS international signal system for the three days when they docked in Dalian before heading to a location off the South Korean coast to transfer the oil to other vessels. Iran still owes China $1 billion in storage fees. (MSN, January 11, 2025)

UYGHURS DETAINED IN THAILAND FACE DEPORTATION BACK TO CHINA
Thailand is considering deporting 43 Uyghur men detained a decade ago to China. Thai immigration officials pushed the detainees to sign "voluntary" deportation papers, but they refused. In 2014, 300 Uyghurs fled China and were detained by Thai authorities near the country's border with Malaysia. The following year, Thailand deported 109 of them back to China against their will, prompting an international outcry. Bangkok then sent 173, mostly women and children, to Turkey, leaving 53 Uyghurs in Thai immigration detention. Since then, five have died, including two children. Of the 48 still detained, five are serving prison terms for a failed escape attempt. China is pushing Thailand to deport the remaining Uyghurs as a show of good will to celebrate the 50th anniversary of bilateral diplomatic relations. (Associated Press, January 11, 2025)

[EDITOR'S NOTE: Each of the detained Uyghurs has submitted an asylum application to the UN, which has acknowledged receipt but has been barred from visiting them by the Thai government. Thailand's treatment of the detainees may constitute a violation of international law, according to a February 2024 letter from the UN to Bangkok. Advocates and relatives describe harsh conditions including poor quality food, overcrowded concrete cells, and a lack of toilets and sanitary goods like toothbrushes or razors.]