Russia Policy Monitor No. 2662

WARSAW IN THE KREMLIN'S CROSSHAIRS
Polish authorities have identified a Russian group that they believe has been tasked with manipulating public opinion and destabilizing society ahead of the country's upcoming May elections. "In recent days, a Russian group has been identified, another one that was inspired and prepared by the Russian military intelligence GRU, whose goal is to influence the Polish elections," Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski has laid out in a television interview. According to him, the group has been implicated in spreading disinformation as well as "recruiting people who... would destroy the coherence of the political scene in Poland."

The news is the latest indicator of Moscow's extensive efforts to interfere in Polish politics - a campaign of destabilization that has been driven by Warsaw's leading role in support of Ukraine. The stakes, Gawkowski has asserted, are high. "We are the most attacked country in the European Union, and the elections are to be a test of whether Polish democracy will survive." (U.S. News & World Report, January 10, 2025)

THE UKRAINE WAR IS DRIVING RUSSIAN DEMOGRAPHIC DECLINE
For decades, the Russian state has grappled with a protracted pattern of demographic decline. The shrinking size of the Russian population has remained a persistent problem for the government of Vladimir Putin, in spite of a series of remedial measures attempted by the Kremlin to ameliorate it. Now, Russia's war of choice in Ukraine is making the situation significantly worse. According to Ukrainian estimates, Russia has lost more than 800,000 citizens to date in its war of aggression.

That, in turn, has deepened the country's already declining population - perhaps catastrophically so. "The impact on Russian society is devastating," Georgetown University's Harley Balzer tells the Kyiv Independent. "From Russia's perspective, (winning the war in Ukraine) is the smaller problem. The bigger issue is, is it going to be a viable country afterward regardless?" (Kyiv Independent, January 8, 2025)

CHECHNYA AS MILITARY TRAINING HUB
Over the past several years, under the leadership of Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, the Spetsnaz University in Gudermes has become a prominent training hub for Russian military personnel. Since 2022, the center has trained over 47,000 servicemen, including 19,000 volunteers, many of whom have gone on to support the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. (The Barents Observer, January 7, 2025)

RUSSIA'S TIES TO THE TALIBAN RUN DEEP
In recent weeks, the Russian government has reversed course on its previous designation of the Taliban as an extremist movement, citing the practical benefits of cooperation on regional counterterrorism policing. But, as it turns out, the Kremlin's connections to Afghanistan's Islamist rulers actually run much deeper. According to a new investigative report from opposition portal The Insider, Russia's government previously put a bounty on Western forces in Afghanistan, paying Taliban-linked fighters some $200,000 for every Coalition soldier killed.

"For many years, the GRU has paid various terrorist groups in Afghanistan for terrorist attacks against the United States and coalition troops," the report charges. "The Insider managed not only to find evidence of the existence of such a program, but also to identify specific GRU officers who were engaged in it. To transfer money to Taliban militants and other groups, Russian special services maintained a network of Afghan couriers disguised as a company that sells precious stones. Having completed their mission, the couriers received Russian documents and asylum in Russia." (The Insider, January 8, 2025)