Resource Security Watch No. 28

CORONA AND THE CLIMATE
A new forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA) has shed light on one key impact of the global coronavirus pandemic. According to the study, global energy demand is now "set to fall by 6%, seven times the decline seen after the global financial crisis of 2008." The decline is staggering, "equivalent to losing the entire energy demand of India for one year," write Laura Millan Lombrana and Hayley Warren in Bloomberg. In response to COVID-19, they say, consumers may be changing habits, from international meetings transitioning to a virtual format to continued strong sales of electric vehicles in Europe.

The impact of the pandemic is also being felt in another sphere: that of climate change. Decreased transportation usage and power generation has meant that "as many as 2.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions" - nearly 10 percent of the global total per year - "will never be emitted into the atmosphere." Yet the permanency of such progress remains to be seen as the world starts to open back up; newly reopened Chinese factories are already contributing anew to increased air pollution. (Bloomberg, May 7, 2020)

AFRICA FACES A LOCUST PLAGUE
Locust invasions continue to present challenges for food security in East Africa and the southern Gulf. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that, since January 2020, 720,000 tons of cereal was saved from the locusts, which are "considered the most destructive migratory pests in the world." With a single Desert Locust swarm (approx. 150 million insects per square kilometer) capable of eating, in one day, enough food to feed 35,000 people, the COVID-19 crisis is compounding an already dire forecast; the FAO has estimated that up to 25 million people in the East Africa region will face acute food insecurity in the latter half of the year. In its January appeal, the FAO successfully raised $130 million to ameliorate the situation. However, millions more are still needed to help local governments adequately respond to future swarms. (Bloomberg, May 11, 2020)

THE CORONAVIRUS FIGHT TAKES ITS TOLL
In its May report, the UN's World Food Program (WFP) warned that measures implemented with the aim of decreasing the spread of COVID-19 could actually create greater stress on food availability in Latin America and the Caribbean. In May 2019, the agency estimated that 3.9 million people in the region faced food insecurity. However, goods shortages and the socio-economic impact of the pandemic is likely to triple that number, pushing another 10 million in the region into privation. Of particular concern is Haiti, where WFP Senior Spokeswoman Elisabeth Byrs expects food shortages to jump from 700,000 to 1.6 million Haitians in coming months. To combat these life-threatening shortages, the WFP is appealing to regional governments to adapt and expand assistance programs, as well intensifying efforts to provide food aid to affected countries. (Voice of America, May 29, 2020)

MOSCOW, BEIJING MOVE CLOSER ON ENERGY
The coronavirus pandemic, coupled with mounting U.S.-China tensions, has provided Russia's plans for a second pipeline to China with greater momentum, experts say. If built, Gazprom's sequel to the "Power of Siberia-1" pipeline, known as "Power of Siberia-2," would "more than double Russia's gas exports to its neighbor" and deliver up to 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Russia to the PRC. And while a formal contract for the new energy route has yet to be signed, COVID-19 and the ensuing spike in U.S.-China tensions have resulted in an uptick of Sino-Russian talks regarding the project.

"Gazprom sees that its position in the European market is eroding over the long run because of growing competition and a drive by some countries to reduce dependence on Russia," explains Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center. "Meanwhile, Gazprom has to market gas from fields in Yamal and Western Siberia, and China is the big market next door." The situation, moreover, is being made more acute by the current global health crisis, which has forced Russia to look elsewhere in order to preserve its global standing, Gabuev notes, and for now it is betting its chips on China. (Nikkei Asian Review, May 27, 2020)