Russia Policy Monitor No. 2630

LIFE AFTER WAGNER
Since the suspicious death last year of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin following an abortive coup against the Kremlin, the Russian government has taken steps to assert its authority over the fragmented remnants of the once-formidable paramilitary outfit. Now divided into at least four distinct factions, Wagner's mercenaries have been strategically dispersed and integrated with other paramilitary organizations loyal to the Kremlin. This restructuring is aimed at avoiding potential future uprisings similar to the one led by Prigozhin last summer, which posed a serious – albeit brief – challenge to the authority of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The new reorganized groups are being dispatched on missions abroad. As Politico reports, one is "aligned" with Russia's ROSGVARDIA (National Guard), and has already seen significant action in Ukraine. Another two are "operating under the control of the defense ministry and Moscow's intelligence services." A fourth, known as the Africa Corps, has assumed Wagner's old duties on the African continent, to considerable effect. Working in tandem with another paramilitary outfit known as REDUT, the Africa Corps is now active in the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Libya and elsewhere. Its presence has already started to reshape the geopolitical landscape on the continent – most recently in Niger, which has disengaged from the U.S. military in favor of reliance on Russian mercenaries.

Whether this new, subservient structure will hold, however, remains an open question. "Many of Wagner's fighters have remained loyal to Prigozhin's memory and similarly disliked" Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Politico notes. That means that tensions between the Kremlin and its new paramilitary conscripts could potentially flare once again in the future. (Politico, April 28, 2024)

MOSCOW VERSUS THE DEMILITARIZATION OF SPACE
Russia has vetoed a United Nations resolution proposing a ban on nuclear weapons in outer space, with Russian envoy Vassily Nebenzia criticizing the draft as a "cynical ploy" and manipulation by its backers, the U.S. and Japan. Earlier this year, the White House confirmed intelligence reports suggesting that Russia was developing nuclear technology capable of causing the destruction of orbiting satellites. Ahead of the vote, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield questioned Russia's motives for the veto. She also lashed out at China's refusal to vote on the measure, accusing Beijing of prioritizing partnership with Russia over global nonproliferation. Despite attempts to modify the resolution, however, the Security Council ultimately failed to reach a consensus on it. (CNN, April 25, 2024)

CARIBBEAN CONSCRIPTS
The Kremlin is looking ever further afield for fresh recruits to feed its war machine. The latest destination is Latin America, with hundreds of Cubans believed to have joined the ranks of Russia's armed forces to date. Last Fall, the personal information of more than 200 Cubans who had enlisted in the Russian military, gleaned from the hacked emails of a Russian military recruitment officer, were leaked online by Ukrainian portal InformNapalm. According to those documents, the Cubans were each offered around $2,000 per month for their military service – a massive amount for those individuals, since the average salary in Cuba is less than $25. Money may not be the only incentive for these new conscripts, however; according to one local Russian media outlet, "some of them would like to become Russian citizens in the future." (BBC, May 4, 2024)

A HELPING HAND FROM BEIJING
Despite its official denials, the People's Republic of China is playing a growing role in assisting Russia's war against Ukraine, a new study has noted. "Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Chinese exports to Russia have risen by more than 60 percent," writes the Carnegie Endowment's Nathaniel Sher in the latest issue of the think tank's Politika publication. "Many analysts suggest that trade with China is providing nothing short of a lifeline to Russia's economy. In the process, China has emerged as the largest supplier of not only commercial goods, but increasingly of dual-use components covered by Western export controls."

These inputs, in turn, are having a material impact on Russia's war effort. "Whether or not Russia can sustain its invasion of Ukraine hinges substantially on its ability to acquire inputs to power its war machine," Sher notes. "Consequently, Chinese exports have played a key role in sustaining Moscow's war effort. Russia's reliance on China for high priority products surged from 32 percent in 2021 to 89 percent in 2023." (Politika, May 6, 2024)