RUSSIA'S LNG LIFELINE
A new report by RBC has revealed that, in 2024, Russia exported a record 33.6 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with European buyers accounting for 52% of total purchases. Asia made up a further 45%, while Turkey and Kuwait each also received small shipments. In fact, both total exports and exports to Europe in particular increased by four percent from 2023 to 2024. Although some EU politicians have pushed for a total boycott of Russian LNG, the EU currently only bans its transshipment through EU ports, and further restrictions failed to garner support during the drafting of the latest European sanctions package. (Meduza, January 28, 2025)
NORTH KOREA... NO LONGER AT THE FRONT
North Korean troops, who were deployed to Russia's Kursk region in the wake of Ukraine's incursion into Russian territory in November, have reportedly been absent from the front lines for several weeks now. The apparent pullback comes on the heels of reports from Kyiv that some 4,000 of the suspected 12,000 North Korean troops in the region had been killed. The large-scale casualties appear to be the result of a lack of experience with drone warfare on the part of North Korean forces, as well as suicidal tactics by those soldiers to avoid capture, and also Russia's use of the North Korean contingent as cannon fodder, deploying DPRK soldiers in mass ground assaults against Ukrainian forces.
The news complicates an already-murky strategic picture in Kursk. Despite North Korea's involvement, Ukraine has charted recent advances there, according to assessments by the Institute for the Study of War, a DC think tank. Neither Moscow nor Pyongyang have formally acknowledged the DPRK's direct involvement in the Ukraine conflict, although Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense pact paving the way for the present cooperation in June of 2024. (CNN, January 31, 2025)
THE REASONS FOR RUSSIA'S DOWNHILL DEMOGRAPHY
For decades, Russia has struggled with deeply adverse demographics, with deaths and emigration outpacing live births – and shrinking the national population in the process. Over the past three years, this trend has worsened noticeably, as Russia's war on Ukraine prompted a veritable exodus from the country while battlefield losses have continued to mount. Underpinning the recent downturn, however, is a deeper structural problem – birthrates in the Russian Federation have collapsed, despite an array of Kremlin programs designed to incentivize childbirth.
That was the message communicated by Russia's Deputy Health Minister, Viktor Fisenko, who told a government meeting in late January that Russia's birth rate is now the lowest in nearly a quarter-century. "Although the total fertility rate in the 2020s is higher than in the early 2000s, the absolute number of births has nearly reached the level of the year 2000, which was one of the lowest in modern Russian history," Fisenko is reported to have said. (Pravda, January 31, 2025; Newsweek, February 4, 2025)
LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR A NEW DRAFT
As the Ukraine war drags on, Moscow continues to seek new manpower for its military forces. To that end, Andrey Kartapolov, the chairman of the State Duma's Committee on Defense, has drafted legislation that would expand the power wielded by Russian military enlistment offices to conscript soldiers. The proposed bill would allow the military to call up men previously excluded from the draft, including for serious illness. Russia's government reportedly supports the legislation, meaning it will likely become law. (Meduza, January 27, 2025)
FROM RUSSIA, WITH LOVE
Last month, Iranian president Massoud Pezeshkian traveled to Moscow on a very public state visit designed to bolster the strategic ties between Russia and the Islamic Republic. Pezeshkian's trip was marked by the signing of a new bilateral agreement, under which the two countries codified a "comprehensive strategic partnership" mirroring the pact inked by Russia with North Korea back in June. The fruits of that agreement are already becoming evident – for Iran, at least. Iranian military officials have confirmed that the country has purchased new Russian-made fighter jets in a move to boost the country's air power. (Jerusalem Post, January 27, 2025)
[EDITORS' NOTE: The purchase is part of a larger acceleration of military production and procurement now being undertaken by the Iranian regime. The effort was prompted by Israel's late-October reprisal airstrikes on the country, which eliminated Iranian air defense capabilities and left the country's nuclear, military and leadership sites vulnerable to future targeting.]
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