Russia Policy Monitor No. 2670

March 14, 2025 Ilan I. Berman,  Chloe Smith,  Anna Harvey
Related Categories: Cybersecurity and Cyberwarfare; Democracy and Governance; Europe Military; Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues; Intelligence and Counterintelligence; International Economics and Trade; Public Diplomacy and Information Operations; Baltics; China; Russia; South Asia

MORE GRIM DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
For decades, Russia has struggled with declining demography. That phenomenon has been perpetuated by a range of factors, among them low birth rates and high rates of mortality. This decline has been made significantly worse by Russia's war of choice in Ukraine, which over the past three years has precipitated what media sources have estimated to be the largest exodus from the country since the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution.

This trend is continuing, new data from Russia's state statistics service, ROSSTAT, has confirmed. "Russia's population continued to decline in 2024, the result of fewer births – 1.2 million or 3.4 percent fewer than in 2023 – and more deaths – 1.8 million or 3.3 percent more than last year," notes Russia expert Paul Goble in his Window on Eurasia blog.

Moreover, the ROSSTAT figures notably "do not include Russian deaths in [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's war in Ukraine," Goble notes. That conflict has, over the past three years, greatly exacerbated the Russian rate of mortality, with Russian combat losses estimated at over 800,000 to date. But even absent that grim tally, the declines charted by ROSSTAT are a massive problem for the Russian state. They "reflect the declining number of women in the prime child-bearing cohort and the aging of the Russian population overall," Goble explains. (Window on Eurasia, February 25, 2025)

EX-UK INTEL CHIEF: RUSSIA WILL TEST EUROPE'S RESOLVE
Sir John Sawers, the former head of MI6, England's foreign intelligence service, has warned that Russia may attempt limited border incursions into the Baltic States in order to test NATO's commitment to Article 5. In Sawers' view, while Russia's army is too weak for a full-scale invasion of the continent, Moscow will continue funding extremist parties to "undermine European democracy" and could increase attacks on undersea cables and gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Russia's goal, he argued, is to expand its sphere of influence and create a neutral zone in Central Europe. Sawyers emphasized the importance of strong intelligence cooperation between the UK, Europe, and the U.S., and encouraged Europe to be prepared to stand up for its allies. (LBC, March 4, 2025)

NAYPYIDAW MAKES A PLAY
Myanmar's leader, Min Aung Hlaing, is meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in a bid to strengthen economic and security ties between the two countries. Discussions will likely include reviving the stalled Dawei special economic zone, which could provide Russia with an alternative Asian trade route, as well as deepening energy, science, and technology sector cooperation. Myanmar's ruling military junta, facing Western sanctions and growing resistance from armed ethnic groups, relies on Russia for weapons and support, with Moscow providing over $400 million in arms since the country's 2021 coup. The junta has also used Russian fighter jets in airstrikes against resistance forces.

The early-March meeting marks Min Aung Hlaing's fourth visit to Russia to date, highlighting the importance of Moscow's role in supporting the current regime in Naypyidaw. It also comes on the heels of a visit to Indonesia, Malaysia, and China, by top security aide (and former Defense Minister) Sergei Shoigu, highlighting a sustained focus on Asia on the part of the Kremlin. (Bangkok Post, March 4, 2025)

CHINESE-STYLE SURVEILLANCE COMES TO RUSSIA'S SECOND CITY
Today, China is widely considered to be the world's largest surveillance state, with the ruling CCP employing extensive technological capabilities to track and monitor the movement and actions of its citizens. Now, it seems, local authorities in Russia's second city are taking a page out of this playbook. Paul Goble, citing Russian city officials, reports that "[i]n order to fight crime and prevent the emergence of ethnic enclaves, St. Peterburg plans to upgrade its CCTV cameras on its streets so that the authorities can identify passersby by ethnicity."

The plan, Goble notes, is another indication of deepening authoritarianism across the Russian Federation. "Moves toward such totalitarian methods of control are taking place at enormous speed in Putin's Russia now," he writes. "At the same time that the use of CCTV cameras to determine ethnicity was announced, the Russian government announced new requirements for doctors to share information about their patients." (Window on Eurasia, February 20, 2025)