PUTIN'S (SORT OF) POLICE STATE
Russia has the highest rate of police per capita of any major nation, with nearly double the amount of officers as in the European Union and some two-and-a-half times as many as in the United States. Yet the country is confronting a growing shortage of officers – and a mounting domestic security crisis. "More and more officers are leaving the force before retirement, and fewer men are willing to sign up," notes Paul Goble. As a result, experts are now predicting a new crime wave "as veterans of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine return home."
The shortage is increasingly severe. At a recent meeting of security officials in Moscow, Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev noted that "the ministry currently has 172,000 unfilled positions, which has increased by 33,000 over the past year." Nevertheless, the Kremlin hasn't done much of substance to ameliorate the situation, Goble notes, because doing so would require serious financial investments and manpower reallocations – things that would complicate the Russian government's war effort in Ukraine. Meanwhile, ordinary Russians are reportedly "taking things into their own hands" in response to growing domestic lawlessness, including by organizing into militias and other self-defense forces. (Jamestown Foundation Eurasia Daily Monitor, March 11, 2025)
BRUSSELS RAISES THE ALARM...
Kaja Kallas, the European Union's top diplomat, has stated that Russian and Iranian agents are engaging in "state-sponsored terrorism" against Europe. Investigations reveal that pro-Russia hacktivist groups have been recruiting individuals to conduct disruptive activities across Europe via social media messaging app Telegram. These recruitment attempts have targeted journalists, who have received direct requests to carry out sabotage, including gathering information on pro-Ukraine journalists, in exchange for cryptocurrency payments. Kallas further warned that recruitment and other covert operations, including cyberattacks and the sabotage of infrastructure, are escalating.
In a recent interview with Belgian television, Kallas, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, characterized this asymmetric activity as a "war that is going on in the shadows." Nor will this state of affairs change if a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine. Europe's adversaries "cannot attack us militarily and do not intend to do so. But they are frustrated and want to execute their ambitions in other ways," officials have warned. (Politico, March 12, 2025)
...AS POLAND PREPS FOR CONFRONTATION
Meanwhile, countries on the continent's eastern flank are preparing for the possibility of a more aggressive, adventurist Russia. In Poland, officials are ramping up plans for voluntary military training – with the objective of training 100,000 such volunteers in 2027. The government of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is also flirting with the idea of acquiring nuclear weapons as a deterrent against the Kremlin. In a recent speech before the Polish parliament, Tusk warned that a "profound change" had taken place in American perceptions of Europe and the transatlantic relationship, and that the country was now in an "objectively more difficult situation." In response, the Polish premier argued, Warsaw should "look boldly at our possibilities of having the most modern weapons" and even explore the acquisition of "modern unconventional weapons." (New York Times, March 7, 2025; Reuters, March 11, 2025)
TRUMP CUTS COMPLICATE RECOVERY OF CHILDREN TAKEN BY RUSSIA
Since it took office in January, the Trump administration has moved aggressively to curtail foreign assistance efforts, citing waste, fraud and abuse. One of the casualties of this effort is a team of specialists seeking to rescue the thousands of Ukrainian children that have been taken by Russia since the start of its war in February 2022. Some 19,500 cases of such "unlawful deportations" have been recorded over the past three years. However, the new administration's curbs on foreign aid have removed funding from researchers at Yale University who have been attempting to track the "coerced adoption and fostering of children" by Russia using open source intelligence, including satellite imagery and social media. (iPaper, March 14, 2025; Radio Free Europe, March 19, 2025)
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