Russia Reform Monitor No. 2406

Related Categories: Energy Security; Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues; International Economics and Trade; Corruption; Resource Security; Global Health; Caucasus; Russia; Ukraine

NEW DONBASS PRISONER SWAP EXPECTED
According to Ukrainian negotiators working to defuse the ongoing conflict in the restive Donbass region, a prisoner exchange between Kyiv and rebel forces there is imminent. If successful, it would be the fourth such swap since President Volodymyr Zelensky took office over a year ago. Of the hundred names submitted by the Ukrainians for exchange, most are Crimean Tatars, who have been systematically persecuted since Russian forces annexed Crimea in 2014.

The exchange comes as part of ongoing efforts to implement de-escalation measures in Ukraine's east. A ceasefire agreement signed in July between warring factions was violated within hours, but recent reports by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) show days without violations in early July. Previous ceasefire agreements, signed in 2014 and 2015 respectively, failed shortly after their ratification. (Reuters, August 6, 2020)

CONGRESS TAKES AIM AT NORD STREAM 2
U.S. Senators Ted Cruz (R-TX), Tom Cotton (R-AR), and Ron Johnson (R-WI) are threatening the operators of a German port with "crushing legal and economic sanctions" for provisioning Russian vessels that are assisting with the construction of the controversial Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline. In their letter, the senators accuse port operator Faehrhafen Sassnitz of "knowingly providing significant goods, services, and support" for the project. The senators said the letter served as "formal legal notice," and demanded that Faehrhafen Sassnitz "cease activities" supporting the construction of the pipeline, or face "potentially fatal measures" that will cut the port's commercial and financial ties with the U.S.

The U.S. strongly opposes the pipeline, which is owned by Russian gas giant GAZPROM and is intended to carry natural gas from Russia to Germany. The United States has argued that the pipeline is dangerous because it will increase Europe's dependence on Russia, a contention that both Berlin and Moscow dispute. German Minister of State Niels Annen has said that Germany "firmly rejected" the proposed sanctions, adding that the tone and content of the letter were "completely outrageous." "Threatening a close friend and ally with sanctions, and using that kind of language, will not work," Annen stated. The effort, however, reflects urgency on the part of U.S. lawmakers, because Nord Stream 2 is nearly finished, with only around 160 kilometers out of the planned 1,220-kilometer-long route remaining to be built. (Deutsche Welle, August 7, 2020)

MEDVEDEV REFLECTS ON GEORGIAN WAR
Nearly twelve years after authorizing the invasion of Georgia, former Russian President (and premier) Dmitry Medvedev reflected on his actions in a recent post on Russian social media platform VKontakte. According to Medvedev, Russia was fighting to ensure stability in the Southern Caucasus when he invaded Georgia in August of 2008. After five days of fighting, hundreds of civilians were dead and the provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia were under Russian military control. Before the month was over, Moscow would be the only power to recognize the two regions as independent nations. The South Caucasus "would have turned into a powder keg, and that would be absolutely unacceptable for Russia, which has always favored lasting peace in neighboring countries," the former president wrote. (TASS, August 8, 2020)

RUSSIA EYES A TURBULENT BELARUS
As massive clashes have broken out in Belarus over the results of the country's August 9th presidential election, the Russian media has distanced itself from long-serving leader Alexander Lukashenko. Russia has closely followed Belarus' tense election and its aftermath, with President Vladimir Putin stressing Moscow's "interest in retaining a stable domestic political situation in Belarus." Yet Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Kremlin tabloid, struck a decidedly more distant tone in its coverage. "The queues outside polling stations stretched for kilometers," the paper wrote. "These weren't people desperate to vote for the authorities. Queueing up here were people hoping for change in Belarus... The people have been insulted... He [Lukashenko] has to find a way to explain what happened on Aug. 9." Meanwhile, Channel One, Russia's largest broadcaster, made no mention of the clashes in its early coverage of the Belarus vote results. (The Moscow Times, August 13, 2020)