Publications

What a difference a year can make.

Last summer, Iran appeared to be well and truly on the march. Its chief Palestinian proxy, Hamas, had succeeded in bogging Israel down in a costly ground war in Gaza – and turning global public opinion against the Jewish state in the process. The United States, under the Biden administration, didn't appear to have much of an answer to Iran's persistent pursuit of nuclear status, or to the growing regional threat posed by its other proxies, like Yemen's Houthi rebels. And vulnerable Gulf states, acutely aware of this dynamic, were increasingly seeking some sort of accommodation with Tehran. As a result, the Iranian leadership's strategic ambitions had begun to expand dramatically.

When President Trump returned to the Oval Office earlier this year, he confidently proclaimed that he could broker an immediate end to the Russia-Ukraine war. But the White House has gotten a better sense of the potential for meaningful compromise in the months since, and revised its expectations down — way down.