Publications

The dangerous Iran flirtation: Argentina likely to get burned

September 26, 2012 Ilan I. Berman Washington Times

At first blush, Argentina seems like an odd choice of partners for the Islamic Republic of Iran. The South American nation holds the dubious distinction of being the first victim of Iranian terrorism in the Western Hemisphere, suffering terrorist attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in Buenos Aires that were carried out by Iranian-sponsored radicals in 1992 and 1994. Yet today, relations between Argentina and Iran are unmistakably on the upswing.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 301

September 20, 2012

Malfunctions further delay Russian turnover of Indian carrier;

Pak tests nuclear capable missile, India follows suit;

India steps up defense cooperation with the Maldives;

China, INdia among participants in Sri Lankan MIlitary exercises;

US cuts back on joint military operations with Afghans

In Putin We Trust?

September 19, 2012 Lawrence J. Haas International Business Times

With Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to expel the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, from his country, perhaps Washington can finally set aside its ill-founded belief -- through presidencies of both parties -- that U.S. leaders can build productive ties to Moscow's strongman.

A Forgotten War in the Himalayas

September 10, 2012 Yale Global Online

Next month marks the 50th anniversary of the 1962 Sino-Indian war. The event will be met with little fanfare in India, where China’s surprise invasion still evokes feelings of outrage and betrayal. But the episode may be worth remembering for another reason, as the first occasion when India shed its nonaligned scruples and formed a tactical military alliance with the United States.

The War on Counterrorism

September 4, 2012 Ilan I. Berman Forbes.com

Almost eleven years after the attacks of September 11, 2011, it’s still hard to discern exactly how we are faring in the struggle against radical Islam. The death in May 2011 of Osama Bin Laden was a key counterterrorism victory for the Obama administration—one that, according to the State Department, has helped put al-Qaeda on a “path of decline.” Yet it’s far too early to count the Bin Laden network out, as recent terrorist attacks by the group’s regional franchises in places like Yemen, Iraq and Mali make clear. Perhaps the most curious anomaly of our current counterterrorism fight, however, is the fact that the subject matter experts who serve at its intellectual front lines have found themselves unexpectedly under attack.

Jack, Ina, And The Lessons Of History

August 22, 2012 Lawrence J. Haas International Business Times

Jaap Polak walks gingerly these days, leaning on a cane or holding the rail as he climbs the stairs to his second-floor room at The Sparhawk, a comfortable waterfront resort in the southern Maine town of Ogunquit. That's where, for more than half a century, he and his wife, Ina Soep, have spent a few weeks in August -- and that's where I first got to know this couple and learned their remarkable story.

U.S. and Russia in a new standoff

August 21, 2012 Ilan I. Berman The Washington Times

Tucked away in what is colloquially known as the “post-Soviet space,” the tiny, landlocked Central Asian republic of Tajikistan seems like an unlikely strategic prize. Yet a potentially significant geopolitical tug of war is brewing there between the United States and Russia. The stakes of this unfolding contest are high and involve continued Western access to Central Asia and, quite possibly, the political future of at least part of the region.

The Economics Of Attacking Iran

August 20, 2012 Ilan I. Berman Forbes.com

Will Israel, in fact, attack Iran? That question, a perennial one in the debate over Iran's nuclear program, has gained far greater urgency of late, as it is becoming increasingly clear that Western sanctions have failed to alter the Islamic Republic's strategic trajectory.

Turkey’s Misguided Foreign Policy

August 12, 2012 International Business Tribune

A century ago, President Theodore Roosevelt's "speak softly and carry a big stick" foreign policy enhanced American power and prestige around the world. Today, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan imperils his country's chances of regional preponderance by pursuing a policy of speaking pugnaciously and carrying no stick.

Another Surrender in the War of Ideas

August 12, 2012 Ilan I. Berman The American

It is the most important country in the Muslim world. Its economy is already the 16th-largest on the planet, and—in marked contrast to those of its sluggish neighbors in Europe—continues to grow by leaps and bounds. And its prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was recently ranked the most popular politician in the entire Middle East.

Of horses and narco-kingdoms

August 9, 2012 Avi Jorisch UPI

Following a 2-year investigation, U.S. prosecutors have submitted a mindboggling 30,000 pages of documentation and 2,000 recorded phone calls that paint an extensive picture of how one of Mexico's most powerful drug-trafficking organizations raises, moves and eventually washes its illicit funds.

Iran Courts Latin America

August 4, 2012 Ilan I. Berman Middle East Quarterly

In October 2011, U.S. attorney general Eric Holder and FBI director Robert Mueller revealed the thwarting of an elaborate plot by elements in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington at a posh D.C. eatery, utilizing members of the Los Zetas Mexican drug cartel.

The foiled terrorist plot, with its Latin American connections, focused new attention on what had until then been a largely overlooked political phenomenon: the intrusion of the Islamic Republic of Iran into the Western Hemisphere. An examination of Tehran's behavioral pattern in the region over the past several years reveals four distinct strategic objectives: loosening the U.S.-led international noose to prevent it from building nuclear weapons; obtaining vital resources for its nuclear project; creating informal networks for influence projection and sanctions evasion; and establishing a terror infrastructure that could target the U.S. homeland.

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 265

July 31, 2012

Israel weighs possible attack on Syria's chemical arsenal;

U.S. hopes for new military base in Tajikistan...;

...while Russia simply hopes to remain;

A way out for Assad;

Sectarian violence surges in Iraq

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 296

July 25, 2012

U.S. apologizes for death of Indian fisherman;

Bill on Haqqani network clears House;

Shift in Bhutan foreign policy worries New Delhi;

India caught in China-Vietnam crossfire;

Unrest rekindled in the Maldives

US Should Forcefully Encourage Free Elections In Georgia

July 25, 2012 Lawrence J. Haas International Business Times

Freedom and democracy don't come easily to a land that's known precious little of it over time. Often, a nation overthrows an authoritarian government and replaces it with a democratically elected one, only to see the new government subvert the rule of law and impose a new authoritarianism.