Publications

Among the lessons from the successful raid on Osama bin Laden’s refuge is the value of cooperative relations with Russia.  Consider that until recently, Pakistan enjoyed a chokehold on supplies for Am

May 14, 2011 E. Wayne Merry Washington Post

Among the lessons from the successful raid on Osama bin Laden's refuge is the value of cooperative relations with Russia.

Consider that until recently, Pakistan enjoyed a chokehold on supplies for American and other allied forces in Afghanistan. A trickle of the vast logistical requirements of the war came in from the north, by air through Kyrgyzstan. The Pakistani leadership exploited its near-monopoly to extract massive aid from Washington and to limit American operations across the porous frontier region joining Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Why Banks Are Fleeing

May 12, 2011 Ilan I. Berman Moscow Times

What's next for the U.S.-Russian reset? Having already succeeded in ramming the ambitious New START arms control treaty through a reluctant Senate late last year, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is now eyeing the next step in its reboot of relations with Moscow: integrating Russia into the world economy.

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 240

May 5, 2011

Morocco protesters reject monarchy's reforms;

Fatah, Hamas sign unity deal, but questions linger;

Iran and Saudi battle through Bahrain;

Tajikistan's Islamic party on the rise

Friends Like These: The U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Partnership

May 2, 2011 World Politics Review

The United States and Pakistan have sustained a decades-old partnership on the strength of a Cold War alliance and a set of narrow but shared vital interests. However, the relationship has undergone profound changes as a result of the Afghan War, which on one hand has forced the two countries into an awkward but necessary embrace, and on the other exposed deep and potentially irreconcilable differences.

What Bin Laden’s Death Means For The War On Terror

May 1, 2011 Ilan I. Berman Forbes.com

President Obama's announcement last night that al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden was killed by U.S. special operations forces outside the Pakistani capital of Islamabad is welcome news indeed. The death of the man responsible for the worst attack on the U.S. in history represents a major counterterrorism victory, and long overdue justice for the victims of 9/11. But it's hardly the "end of the War on Terror," as some observers have been quick to suggest.

Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 110

April 28, 2011

The Moslehi Affair: A Metric of Ahmadinejad's Power;

Rafsanjani on the Outs;

Tehran Targets Dogs, Pharmaceuticals;

Regime Jitters Over the Green Movement;

 

Sino-Indian Relations: A Troubled History, An Uncertain Future

April 26, 2011

The effects of this game of brinksmanship being played by China, and to a lesser degree India, have so far been constrained by prudent and cautious political leaders in both capitals. However, the longer the aura of confrontation perpetuates, the more it generates a momentum of its own. Hawkish comments by officials and newspaper editors are easily dismissed; shifts in military doctrines and public opinion are much harder to reverse.

What Egyptians Want Now: Not Necessarily The Muslim Brotherhood

April 25, 2011 Ilan I. Berman Forbes.com

Call it belated full disclosure. Ever since the ouster of president Hosni Mubarak earlier this year, the Muslim Brotherhood has reemerged as a major force in Egyptian politics. For most of that time, however, it has played coy about its political aspirations and ideological agenda. These days, though, the Islamist movement has become a great deal more frank about its plans for Egypt.

"At this period, we would like to lead the society to achieve its Islamic identity in preparation for the Islamic rule," Saad Husseini, a member of the Brotherhood’s Guidance Bureau, proclaimed at a recent rally in Cairo. These ideas have been echoed by other Brotherhood officials, who have outlined sweeping social changes once “Islam enters the lives, ethics, and dealings of the people.”

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 239

April 24, 2011

NATO steps up assistance to Libyan opposition;

Qatar supplies Libyan rebels with "

defensive weapons"

';

Camp Ashraf under fire;

Syria wracked by protests

Why Pakistan Will Betray Us

April 24, 2011 The Washington Times

It should come as little surprise, but U.S. headlines are again dominated by dour news out of Pakistan. The U.S.-Pakistan relationship is today under severe strain, rattled by heated disputes over CIA drone strikes in Pakistan's tribal areas; clandestine U.S. intelligence operations inside Pakistan; and Islamabad's persistent refusal to crack down on the Taliban and their radical allies. Intelligence cooperation is at an all-time low.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 272

April 14, 2011

China and India beef up border forces;

India largest importer over five years;

Taliban forms unit to hunt CIA spies;

Than Shwe steps down, sort of;

India and Pakistan to resume talks

Rabat In A Hard Place

April 12, 2011 Ilan I. Berman Forbes.com

These are trying times in Morocco. Over the past three months, the small North African kingdom has seen regime change roil two of its neighbors, Tunisia and Egypt, and a third—Libya—descend into civil war. The Moroccan street itself has seen its fair share of ferment; large-scale rallies calling for new social reforms and sweeping governmental changes have taken place throughout the country in recent weeks. In response, the country’s monarch, Mohammed VI, outlined a series of far-reaching constitutional reforms in early March, even going so far as to propose a diminution of royal power in favor of the country’s government and parliament. But, at least for now, the protesters do not appear to be entirely mollified.

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 238

April 7, 2011

Turkey to host Taliban talks?;

Libya crisis puts Qatar in the spotlight;

Washington cutting off arms to Lebanon?;

Bishkek interested in U.S., Russian CT centers

Obama And Iranian Freedom

March 20, 2011 Ilan I. Berman Forbes.com

Is President Obama finally learning to love the idea of freedom in Iran? If the Administration’s Persian New Year message is any indication, it is certainly starting to seem that way.

That video greeting, issued on March 20th to mark Nowruz, took a serious stand in support of Iran’s opposition forces—and against its repressive regime. The Iranian government’s heavy-handed response to the grassroots protests that have taken place throughout the country since the fraudulent reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the summer of 2009, Mr. Obama declared, demonstrate

that it cares far more about preserving its own power than respecting the rights of the Iranian people.

What Makes Jordan And Bahrain Different

March 6, 2011 The American Spectator

With regimes collapsing throughout the Middle East, many Washington experts wonder if two U.S.-aligned monarchies, Bahrain and Jordan, might be the next possible candidates for the type of regime change seen of late in Tunisia and Egypt. In recent weeks, thousands have demonstrated in Bahrain in favor of overthrowing the monarchy after security forces killed several protesters calling for constitutional reforms and investigations into government corruption and human rights abuses. In Jordan, meanwhile, demonstrations against rising food prices and rampant unemployment quickly transformed into pro-democracy rallies, rocking the Hashemite Kingdom to its core.

The stakes for the U.S. are enormous. The overthrow of either regime would threaten American interests and further destabilize the already-volatile region. Bahrain's strategic position in the Persian Gulf, through which approximately a fifth of the world's oil exports pass, as well as its role as host to the U.S. Fifth Fleet (which helps protect that oil), makes its continued alliance with the U.S. crucial to American energy security. As for Jordan, its long border with Iraq, which will likely host American troops for many more years, and its peace treaty with Israel, makes the country an important strategic partner for America.

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 236

March 1, 2011

Boosting Yemen's special forces;

A second nuke site in Syria?;

Bahrain opposition figure returns from exile;

Russian cruise missiles to Syria still on track

Egypt Is No 1979 Iran

February 20, 2011 Washington Times

In the wake of grass-roots protests that swept Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak from power, more than a few commentators have cautioned that the current political turmoil could end up bearing more than a passing resemblance to the events that led up to the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Even that bleak outcome, however, might end up being wishful thinking. Ominously, the present situation in Egypt closely resembles the events leading up to Algeria‘s bloody 11-year civil war, which stretched from 1991 to 2002.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 269

February 17, 2011

Flawed defense policy hampers India mil modernization;

Pak attacks down 20% but other data mixed;

U.S. drops 

sanctions on Indian defense firms;

Pakistan's nuclear bonanza

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 235

February 10, 2011

Manas clears another hurdle?;

Turkey and Azerbaijan solidify alliance;

Tribes use regional unrest to pressure Jordan's king;

A Saudi political party emerges

After Mubarak, The Deluge

February 10, 2011 Ilan I. Berman Forbes.com

It took a day longer than expected, but the Egyptian opposition has gotten its way. Less than twenty-four hours after issuing a defiant address to the nation in which he pledged to serve out the remainder of his term, Hosni Mubarak has formally resigned the Egyptian presidency.

Mubarak's departure was by and large predictable. Beset by widening domestic disapproval and bereft of his traditional support from the West, it was clear that Egypt's long-serving strongman would eventually be forced to make an exit. What comes next, however, is far less clear. Indeed, since the start of the unrest some three weeks ago, the depths of the political and economic challenges confronting those seeking a new future for Egypt have become apparent.

Echoes Of Cairo In Tehran

February 10, 2011 Ilan I. Berman The Diplomat

What does Iran think about the Middle East’s democracy wave? On the surface, officials in Tehran have taken an optimistic view of the anti-regime sentiment now sweeping the region, depicting it as an outgrowth of Ayatollah Khomeini’s successful revolution 32 years ago—and the start of an ‘Islamic awakening’ in which the Islamic Republic will inevitably play a leading role.

Privately, however, Iran’s ayatollahs must be quaking in their boots. Why? Because the current anti-regime sentiment being expressed in Tunis, Cairo, and beyond could end up breathing new life into their country’s own beleaguered pro-democracy movement.

Hezbollah’s Seizure Of Power In Lebanon Dooms Peace Talks And Puts Israel At Risk

February 9, 2011 Lawrence J. Haas Sacramento Bee

Prospects for peace between Israel and the Palestinian Authority have not been rising. The central issues of Jerusalem, Israeli settlements and Palestinian refugees seem no closer to resolution, and turmoil in Egypt, Jordan, Yemen and elsewhere in the region further complicates efforts to reach long-term solutions to vexing challenges.

Now, Hezbollah's de facto takeover of Lebanon's government puts a final nail in the coffin of Israeli-Palestinian peace, giving the terrorist group and its backers in Tehran and Damascus still more leverage to doom any serious peace initiative.