Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 107
Ahmadinejad Takes Aim at the Expediency Council;
The S-300 by Other Means?;
An Iranian River Runs Through It
Ahmadinejad Takes Aim at the Expediency Council;
The S-300 by Other Means?;
An Iranian River Runs Through It
Tajikistan recalls students from Egypt;
Turkey signs on to missile defense, with preconditions;
Potential coup plot by Hezbollah;
Saudi king targets extremists in hajj speech
Local Party officials throw dissidents in mental hospitals;
Russia clamping down on Chinese IP violations
Beijing flips Taiwan intel agent;
Maoists protect Chinese interests in Nepal
President Barack Obama's 10-day tour through Asia is being deemed a disappointment in some Washington circles after the President failed to secure a free trade with South Korea, or forge a consensus on issues of currency manipulation and trade imbalances. However, the President's underwhelming performance in East Asia risks overshadowing his more commendable performance in South Asia, where President Obama announced that America now supports a permanent seat for India at the United Nations Security Council. The policy change was warmly received in New Delhi, where politicians have been lobbying the U.S. for such an endorsement for years (not even the Indophile Bush administration was willing to offer one). And while there is little likelihood that India's Security Council aspirations will be fulfilled anytime soon, President Obama's announcement at least temporarily silenced critics who had begun to question the President's commitment to the U.S.-India partnership.
For the moment, Muhammad Ibrahim Makawi is still far from a household name. Outside of a small corpus of terrorism experts and national security specialists, few people are familiar with the Egyptian-born militant who is arguably al-Qaeda’s most dangerous operative. But they should be. Mounting evidence suggests that, after years of absence, Makawi—better known by his nom de guerre, Saif al-Adel (“sword of justice” in Arabic)—is back in action and spearheading a new stage in al-Qaeda’s war with the West.
Mumbai suspect spills beans;
India tests indigenous drones;
Karzai's cash from Iran;
Rethinking airstrikes
North Korea to "
lease"
two islands to China;
China conducts broad military exercises in Tibet
Beijing and Tehran to cooperate on law enforcement;
China boosts investment, trade with Burma
It’s a tried-and-true tenet of warfare, showcased throughout centuries of combat, that it is a great deal easier to attack than to defend. Attacking forces have the luxury of setting the time, the place and the means by which conflict is joined, while defenders are forced to anticipate the actions and objectives of their adversaries—or suffer the consequences.
In the age of modern terrorism, those consequences could mean another 9/11, or worse. And while the United States has fared better than most in thwarting these kind of attacks (the Heritage Foundation estimates that the U.S. government has successfully foiled over 30 significant terrorist plots since September 2001), talk to any counterterrorism professional and you’ll come away with the impression that America, like its allies abroad, is still very much playing defense.
Russia’
s deadbeat ex-husbands;
Moscow backs arms dealer Bout
Chinese only classes spark backlash in Tibet;
Hong Kong church leader visits China
Regime Keeps up Pressure on Reformists;
Amid Sanctions, Iran's Gasoline Trade Continues...;
...But at Reduced Volume;
Secret Executions on the Rise
U.S. reassesses NDN after Pak border crisis;
Turkey's opposition looks to new leadership;
Israel warms to Greece;
UAE hedges on Hormuz
ROK intel compromised by Chinese hackers;
Xi moves in line to succeed Hu
Russia and China hammer out long term gas deal;
DPRK seeks to subvert ROK sanctions in China
Last week, Iran rolled out the red carpet for an unlikely dignitary. The visitor wasn’t Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the spiritual head of the Hezbollah Shi’ite militia Iran created in Lebanon in the early 1980s and has sustained since. Nor was it Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq’s newly-reconfirmed prime minister, whom—having failed to supplant in favor of a more pliable politician in recent elections—Tehran is now actively courting. Rather, the head-of-state that garnered Tehran’s most lavish diplomatic reception was none other than Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez, who over the past decade has emerged as one of Iran’s most dependable international allies.
CIA ups drone campaign...;
...as FATA residents weigh in on drone strikes;
Musharraf returns, and spills the beans;
India
looks east
Stuxnet doesn’
t spare China;
China takes Israel’
s spot in Turkish mil exercises
There is trouble on the high seas. Few doubted China’s astonishing economic and geopolitical rise would fuel competition and rivalry with the United States and China’s Asian neighbors. Most observers, however, have been left guessing where the first serious points of conflict would emerge. We may have been given our answer this summer: in the disputed and crowded waters of the Asian Pacific, where overlapping claims of sovereignty and territorial rights among the United States, China and a handful of East Asian nations have spilled into confrontation and political brinkmanship this year.
CMC issues corruption “
guidelines”
Officials in NE lobby for greater trade with DPRK
Russian missiles to Syria put Israel deal at risk;
Gulf anxiety over Iran on the rise;
Saudi starts new re-education effort;
Iraqi politics and the Iran factor
Chinese university begins “
anti-corruption”
classes;
PLA furthers integration with anti-pirate force in Indian Ocean
A pipeline to China on the horizon;
For FSB target, some long-delayed justice
NATO draws closer to Russia...;
...while Moscow keeps the heat on Washington;
Defending Israel's naval assets;
More U.S.-Israeli cooperation;
For Iran, necessity is the mother of invention
India's nuclear command seeks air force;
Chinese projects in Bangladesh worry India;
China nuke company announces new plant in Pakistan;
Historic Ayodhya verdict arrives in India;
Pakistan cuts off NATO supplies after cross-border attack
Hong Kong Police censor sensitive reports;
Quality of rural infrastructure questioned
This Sunday marks 20 years since German unification. It also coincides with a low point in the commitment of post-war Germany to European unity. The two are directly related.
Alone in Europe, the people of the former German Democratic Republic (East Germany) did not have to qualify for entry into the European Union. German unification made them automatically full-fledged members.
Nothing was asked of East Germans for this extraordinary benefit. Nor were they educated about the European project and Germany’s unique role, based on its history, in building a common European home.
All other former Soviet-bloc countries — Poland, Hungary, Latvia, etc. — had to work hard for E.U. membership, both in the complex formal qualifications and through years of learning to become “European” in a pragmatic sense. For these countries, entering “Europe” was a long-sought goal and finally a celebrated achievement. Eastern Germany never moved up this learning curve.
For quite a while now, policymakers in Washington have worked diligently to try and test a simple hypothesis: that energy sanctions can help derail Iran’s march toward the bomb.
Over the years, this effort has taken the form of a number of legislative initiatives aimed at curtailing Tehran’s energy trade with the world. Of late, however, American pressure has honed in on Iran’s most glaring economic dependency, its deep reliance on foreign refined petroleum. The culmination was the passage by Congress this summer of the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act, a sweeping set of new provisions aimed in large measure at throttling the Iranian regime’s oil sector.
Beijing building roads to Bangladesh through Burma;
North Korea tries to rewrite Chinese history
Can sanctions stop Iran's nuclear drive? Since the passage of new U.S. and multilateral measures this summer, there have been unmistakable signs that Iran has begun to feel the economic pinch. Prompted by mounting international pressure, a slew of foreign multinationals have exited the Iranian market, while a range of countries - from South Korea to the United Arab Emirates - are in the process of curtailing their financial dealings with the Islamic republic.
But, despite these heartening signs, the ultimate success of sanctions depends on what could come after. In order for economic pressure to be taken seriously in Tehran, Iran's leaders must be convinced that their continued intransigence on the nuclear front will lead to something far worse.
For the moment, at least, they clearly are not. That is in large part because, despite repeated assurances from U.S. officials that "all options remain on the table" in dealing with the Iranian regime, Tehran has been permitted to wage not one but two irregular wars against America for more than half a decade and to do so with virtual impunity.
Dissent in the Ranks;
Scrambling ot Stop Subsidies;
Iran's Anti-Family Bill Fails to Pass Muster;
Iran Hearts the AKP
Bahrain reasserts control over mosques;
Iraqi officials want longer U.S. presence;
Referendum amends Turkey's constitution, boosts AKP;
Shi'ite-Sunni militants join hands in Iraq
China, Russia begin direct currency trade;
Beijing may be trying to sway Nepalese elections
Brahmos makes advances;
TTP to FTO list;
Rajapaksa does away with term limits;
India and Russia to build fifth gen fighter;
LeT ups presence in Afghanistan
PLA Navy in firefight with Somali pirates;
Ukraine warms to China under Yanukovich
Chinese modernization: more of the same;
India focuses on lasers;
A NATO shield against Iran
Flashpoint: Abkhazia;
A demotion for Kadyrov
If economic sanctions fail to stop Iran's march toward the bomb, and either the U.S. or Israel is compelled to use force against the Iranian nuclear program, China will shoulder at least some of the blame.
Since this summer, concerted international pressure has unmistakably tightened the financial noose around Iran's ayatollahs. The June passage of a new round of United Nations sanctions against the Islamic Republic has been followed by an exodus of European and Asian firms from the Iranian market, and new, stricter regulations on financial dealings with the regime in Tehran. Simultaneously, unilateral American sanctions have honed in on Iran's most glaring economic vulnerability—its deep dependence on supplies of refined petroleum from abroad—with marked results. According to energy consultancy EMC, Iran's gasoline imports plummeted by 50 percent, from 120,000 to 60,000 barrels per day, in the month after the imposition of U.S. sanctions, as skittish foreign suppliers scrambled to exit the Iranian market.
But the push to isolate Iran economically may end up being undermined by a key global actor. China's leaders may have reluctantly gone along with the latest round of Security Council sanctions passed this summer. Yet, even as other foreign stakeholders have constricted their financial stakes in Iran, Beijing has done the opposite.
Pipeline progress: Russian oil to China “
this year"
While Moscow and Beijing cooperate on nuclear energy
Chinese presence in Pak’
s Gilgit and Baltistan grows;
Beijing considers “
special political zones”
Moscow's Dagestan dilemma;
A slower pace for chemical weapons eradication
AQAP warns of Israel-Iranian war;
AKP bests Turkey's generals again;
Egypt gets nuclear ball rolling;
Yemen cracks down on al Qaeda;
Hamas targets settlers ahead of peace talks
On the very day Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that the United States would lead a renewed Israeli-Palestinian peace effort, Iran boasted that it had test-fired a surface-to-air missile.
A day later, Iran began loading fuel rods into its Bushehr nuclear reactor, marking further progress on its quest for nuclear weapons.
A day after that, Iran's leaders unveiled the nation's first home-built unmanned, or "drone," bomber, with a range of more than 600 miles and which President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said could serve as a "messenger of death" to hostile outside forces.
These developments illustrate a big problem with the U.S. peace effort - it will divert U.S. time and attention from the far more pressing challenge of containing Iran's regional hegemonic ambitions, which threaten our allies, our role in the region, and our ongoing efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan and other hotspots.
HK may again consider controversial Article 23;
China to help build railways linking it, ASEAN
Pakistan plays a triple game...;
As the U.S. scales back pressure on Islamabad;
AQ takes a backseat in Afghanistan;
Pentagon report touches on China-India conflict
China irked at Sino-Vietnam nuclear deal;
Beijing cracks down on polluting industries
China's naval advances to challenge U.S. dominance by 2020;
Hanoi and Beijing continue to spar over South China Sea
The furor accompanying the recent dissemination of classified military files by WikiLeaks has focused some much-needed attention on the damaging role Pakistan plays in the Afghan theater. As the WikiLeaks documents highlight in damning detail, Islamabad's close - and ongoing - cooperation with the Taliban has made it a key accessory to the worsening insurgency against the U.S.-led coalition on the war on terror's first front.
But what can actually be done about Islamabad's double-dealing? Disengagement, after all, is simply not an option. By dint of its strategic geography, Pakistan is a key player in Afghanistan, and its constructive involvement is essential to ensuring lasting stability there - especially following the planned July 2011 U.S. withdrawal. Pakistan is also a nuclear power, and the specter of Islamists gaining control of its burgeoning atomic arsenal is a nightmare scenario the West has sought to forestall through increased diplomatic engagement and foreign aid.
For years, Pakistan has played on these fears to get a pass on its domestic conduct and keep American dollars flowing. But this does not mean the United States lacks the ability to steer Pakistan toward a more constructive course. To the contrary, a number of opportunities exist for Washington to influence Islamabad's stance on terrorism and radical Islam.
Israel and Lebanon clash at the border;
Arming the Saudis;
Terror title shifts to South Asia;
IMU leader Yuldashev dead